Of course what everyone cares about is March Madness today and our line moves article will reflect that today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (23-11-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CBB – (715) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (716) WISCONSIN 9:40 ET CBS
Virginia Tech prefers that high speed tempo, however, when matched against Wisconsin, it is challenging to get up and down the floor and in turn the total has fallen from 138.5 to 136. One aspect to consider, Hokies coach Buzz Williams is very familiar with how the Badgers prefer to play, having been the head coach at Marquette and doing battle with them annually. With both clubs UNDER tendencies, what seals the deal is Wisconsin at 6-0 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (723) EAST TENN. STATE vs. (724) FLORIDA 3:10 ET truTV
With both these clubs in the upper 70’s in scoring, those betting basketball are counting on more points and lifted the total from 142 to 148.5. While both do a good job defensively, East Tennessee lacks the size to compete in the paint with Florida and will have to continue to score to have a chance for the upset. With Buccaneers 10-1 OVER on neutral floors and 15-5 OVER off two exact losses, the bigger number could work.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (733) MID. TENN. STATE vs. (734) MINNESOTA 4:00 ET TNT
In Vegas and sportsbooks everywhere, Middle Tennessee State was a very popular choice to pull the upset over Minnesota and were switched from +1.5 to -1.5 point favorites. Everyone knows about the Blue Raiders upset of Michigan State last year as a 15-seed and the general feeling is this is even a better squad that has the confidence and experience from last year. While I too like M.T.S., I preferred them in role as underdog because the Golden Gophers also have played well down the stretch. Nonetheless, as long as this is not greater than current number of -1.5, count me in.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Middle Tennessee State
Doug’s VPID Take – Middle Tennessee State covers
CBB – (743) VCU vs. (744) ST. MARY’S 7:20 ET TBS
The oddsmakers total of 126 did not hold up, pushed all the way to 129. What happened, there is enough bettors who are on board to think VCU’s defensive pressure will generate enough turnovers that will lead directly to points. Though St. Mary’s really trends towards lower scores, if you break down most of their success UNDER angles, they tend to be right around 130 total points, which has me leaning that way.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 61-71-1 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 28-40-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 92-107-2 ATS