A common refrain among supposed smart bettors is to avoid exotic wagers. Things like parlays, teasers and in-game betting are simply losing propositions. That is if you do not understand how and what to do. Sharp bettors understand how to put the odds in their favor, reduce risk and win consistently.
For this article and the entire NFL regular season, we will teach you how to bet teasers like a pro and find ways to maximize your earnings potential.
Betting NFL teasers is just not about shaving or adding more points on a spread wager, it is about creating value going against key numbers. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers numbers.
The keys numbers we are talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. These are the most common outcomes in the NFL and if you can situate your wagers on the right side of these figures, you can dramatically enhance your chances of winning teasers.
When making teaser bets, it’s recommended to keep them at either two or four picks. Here the typical payouts at sportsbooks like Intertops.
2-teamer +100 (on $100 wager)
3-teamer +165 (on $100 wager)
4-teamer +265 (on $100 wager)
If you check the numbers at any sportsbook, after that the payout start ramping up (+410 for a 5-teamer) and so does the degree of difficulty. If you are serious about betting money and making money, you don’t chase the big score for two reasons. One, there are literally thousands of football bettors that play an eight-team teaser and go 7-1, making them a loser. Also, keep in mind when you hear about somebody making a huge score on a 10-team teaser or exotic parlay, chances are those winnings only offset all their previous losses chasing one big winner.
Here is what we have for this week. Remember, this is a journey, not a 100-yard dash. Over the last three years, this handicapper has averaged over 25 units of profit betting teasers. (Example: A four-teamer would be +2.65 units up on a 1-unit wager.)
We start with being able to take Minnesota down to a Pick at home against visiting San Francisco. We go under important numbers like 6 and 3 that are set up to benefit us. Jimmy Garoppollo might be terrific again, but there is a book on him after defensive coordinators have had a full off-season to understand him and we know how good the Minnesota defense is when fresh. Also, know this, when the teaser favorite is a Pick and you match that with Over 40 on the total, teams like the Vikings are 9-0 recently.
This happens to be this writer’s favorite number. Here we can take the Ravens thru the three strongest football number (3, 6 and 7) and the only way we come up short is if Baltimore wins is the rare one-point outcome. Buffalo’s quarterback situation is a mess and the Ravens are 32-3 at home in September against the teaser line.
The beauty of this teaser like the first is all we need New England to do is win the game. By season’s end, you will be tired of this, but we get to pass thru key numbers of 6 and 3. Tom Brady has some new teammates that have to work their way in, but he will be facing what ProFootballFocus.com is calling the No.25 secondary in the NFL and that should lead to points. Granted, the numbers could change, but when he favorite opens at -0.5 on a six-point teaser and does not move when bet, that is 31-2 the last few years.
The Packers are in the same spot as Baltimore and there is no point being redundant. One difference, however, Green Bay opened at -8 on the standard spread line and when teams like the Packers that have fallen a half point at that exact price, they cover the teaser line 84.4 percent of the time. (114-21)
Doug Upstone wrote this for ScoresandStats.com.