For line moves today we have the full gamut, which includes at the big games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (128-82, 60.9% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (507) CLEVELAND at (508) BOSTON 8:30 ET TNT (side and total)
Three things we know: 1) The Celtics are harder to prepare for without Isaiah Thomas than Golden State, according to Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue. (From the Lou Holtz book of “Every opponent is tremendous”) 2) Bettors disagree with Lue and took Cavs from -9 to -10.5. 3) We should expect plenty of points with total up two digits to 216.5. Personally, I look for Boston to hang in and falter in the fourth quarter and a rising total makes sense.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Cleveland and 79% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Cleveland covers and Over
NHL – (61) OTTAWA at (62) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET NBCSN
Pittsburgh has gone from a -185 Game 7 favorite to -205. There is little doubt who has the more talent, but Ottawa this spring has been as gritty as they come. The Senators are 0-5 in Game 7’s, however, the Pens are just 3-7 on home ice in Game 7’s themselves. A modest vote for the home team.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pittsburgh
MLB – (959) ARIZONA at (960) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET FSAZ, FSWI
My initial reaction to the total falling in this contest was, “Say What?”. Having Robbie Ray (3-3, 3.91 ERA) and Zack Davies (5-2, 5.44) in the same game sound like it has slow-pitch scoring potential. Granted, both starters have been better of late which accounts for the real reason of a sinking total, yet both are combustible from start to start. With the Snakes 18-8 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 and Davies 13-4 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5, you can figure what I am betting on.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (969) DETROIT at (970) HOUSTON 8:10 ET FSD, RTSW (side and total)
Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.14) vs. Justin Verlander (4-3, 4.39 ERA) sounds about as fair as a swimsuit competition between Kate Upton and Mama June. Yet because Verlander has an ERA of 7.24 in five road starts, Houston has gone from a Pick (-105) to -125. With this the total is also on the move from 8.5 to 9. Both starting hurlers have enjoyed success versus the opposing batting order, but I’ll bet Verlander has a good outing and pray the bullpen does not blow it. All the numbers otherwise shout for an OVER.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Detroit and 58% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit, Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 116-122-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 67-67-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 177-179-11 ATS