Let’s Go Bowling – 2016 College Bowl Games Part II
By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com
It’s on to the meat and potatoes portion of the 2016 college football postseason, namely the ‘New Year’s Six’ and the College Football Playoff games.
Starting on Friday, December 30 with the Orange Bowl matchup between Florida State and Michigan, and concluding Monday, January with the Sugar Bowl showdown between Auburn and Oklahoma, ESPN and ABC will televise the eight most popular bowl games on this year’s expansive card.
All stats are from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Bowl Stat Report.
Big Bowl Game Trends
Over the years, each bowl game develops its own favorite or underdog pointspread personality. All results are ATS dating back as far as 1980, unless noted otherwise, and are listed in chronological order according to this year’s bowl schedule.
ORANGE BOWL – The underdog has been the money winner has won this bowl game in straight-up fashion 7 of the last nine games, including each of the last three years. (Florida State)
CITRUS BOWL – The favorite has bagged the cash each of the last five years in this bowl. 2014 saw South Carolina beat Wisconsin, 34-24, in a ‘pick’ game. (LSU)
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL – The underdog has barked the loudest in the Peach Bowl, winning straight-up 10 of the last sixteen contests, going 11-5 ATS overall – with the 2002 game being a ‘pick em’ affair. (Washington)
FIESTA BOWL – The underdog owns the edge in the Fiesta Bowl, winning 8 of the last fifteen games in the scoreboard, going 10-5 ATS overall. (Clemson)
OUTBACK BOWL – The underdog has owned the edge of late in this bowl game, going 4-1 ATS the last five years. (Iowa)
COTTON BOWL – The chalk has rewarded backers 5 of the last seven years in this bowl game. (Wisconsin)
ROSE BOWL – The favorite has taken home the money of 11 of the last sixteen Rose Bowls (one game was a pick ‘em). Including 4 of the last five games. (USC)
SUGAR BOWL – The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four Sugar Bowl games. (Auburn)
Good, Bad and Ugly Team Techs
Listed below are the stand out Good, Bad and Ugly team technicals on this year’s major bowl game card.
GOOD: The dog is 12-1 ATS in Clemson bowl games… Florida State 7-1 ATS as bowlers vs. foe off a loss… LSU – 3-0 ATS as bowlers with win percentage of less than .666… Washington coach Peterson is 6-0 ATS as a dog with rest
BAD: Western Michigan is 1-6 SU all-time in bowl games (win last year)… Penn State and USC are each 1-3 ATS in their last four bowl games
UGLY: Louisville 1-6 SUATS as a bowl dog.
Some of the best and worst conference bowl trends include the following:
Big Ten bowl favorites are 2-6 SU and 0-7-1 ATS vs. ACC opponents (Michigan).
Big Ten bowl teams are 17-3 ATS vs. opponents that scored 35 or more points in their last game (Ohio State).
PAC 12 bowlers are 16-4 ATS off a double-digit wins when facing Big Ten opponents. (USC)
SEC bowlers are 14-2 ATS against Big 12 opponents. (Auburn)
SEC bowlers off SUATS loss are 1-7 ATS vs. Big Ten foes off a double-digit win (Florida)
Inside The Stats
Looking at this year’s major bowl games from a ‘bowler vs. bowler’ ITS (Inside The Stats) performance perspective, this year found…
Alabama 10-0 SU and 10-0 ITS by an average 247 YPG margin
Clemson 10-1 SU and ITS by an average 160 PYG margin
Michigan 7-2 SU and ITS by an average 137 YPG margin
Ohio State 8-1 SU and ITS by an average 140 YPG margin
USC 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS by an average -02 YPG margin
Washington 5-1 SU and 5-1 ITS by an average 109 YPG
Chew On This
Alabama is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games.