All quiet on the other sports fronts today, thus for line moves, it will be a summer day with our full attention on baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (124-80, 60.7% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) COLORADO at (902) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET RTRM, CSP
Baseball bettors are following the money in this matchup. Colorado as we mentioned yesterday is the best bet in baseball and have won seven of their previous nine games. Philadelphia on the other hand has dropped 11 of 13. Though the Phillies have their best pitcher Jeremy Hellickson (5-1, 3.44 ERA) taking the mound, they have gone from +100 to +115 underdogs. Tyler Chatwood (3-6, 5.09) was almost unbeatable on the road last year, that is not the case this year at 1-3 with a 3.91 ERA. Would not mind taking the Phils on a hunch, however, too much quality coming from Colorado.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins
MLB – (903) SAN DIEGO at (904) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET FSSD, SNY (side and total)
I said during spring training San Diego was going to stink and they are right on schedule at 16-31 (-12.5 units). As bad as the Padres are, those betting baseball have concerns about the Mets Robert Gsellman, who is 2-3 with a 7.27 ERA in seven starts this season and has allowed 18 runs over 18 innings in his past four starts. This has lowered New York from -155 to -140 and sent the total from 8.5 to 9. This makes the money line a very difficult choice, however, with Gsellman 7-0 OVER and the Mets 18-4 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150 this season, that is the easy choice.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Over, 86% on New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, slight lean San Diego
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MLB – (905) PITTSBURGH at (906) ATLANTA 7:35 ET RTPT, FSSE (side and total)
Trevor Williams (2-3, 6.04) is making his 10th appearance and fourth start when he faces Atlanta’s Julio Teheran (3-4, 5.47 ERA). Faith in Teheran as a home starter continues to erode, with the Braves crumbling from -140 to -125. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 10.50 ERA at new Sun Trust Park and he and his teammates are 5-18 since last year with Atlanta as the home team. It seems the safest wager is going along with total lifted from 9 to 9.5 with these two starters. The Braves are 11-2 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since last year and should rough up Williams.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over and 89% on Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, Lean Atlanta
MLB – (929) CINCINNATI at (930) CLEVELAND 6:10 ET STO, FSOH
The total in the battle of Ohio is a study in contrasts, with Cleveland is 26-16 UNDER, with Cincinnati 27-16 OVER. The first two games in this home and home interleague confrontation saw one of each for totals and now the scene shifts to the nearby shores of Lake Erie. With both Lisalverto Bonilla (0-2, 6.38) and Trevor Bauer (4-4, 6.65) ineffective to date, the total has gone from 9 to 9.5. On the surface this appears to be an easy OVER, nevertheless, you still have to think about how good both bullpens are, which could make this a dicey choice.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 116-122-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 64-64-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 171-178-11 ATS