Intriguing Line Moves and Free Picks for August 10th


Time to ready ourselves for more line moves including late afternoon contest in Washington. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (176-137, 56.2% of late, including 26-14 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (957) ARIZONA at (958) N.Y. METS  7:10 ET  FSAZ, SNY

With last night’s victory, Arizona has accomplished something the New York Mets have not done in 33 days, win consecutive games. Even though today’s pitching matchup appears to be one-sided in the Mets favor, the home team has tumbled from -160 to -125 at all sportsbooks. The D-Backs have Robbie Ray (5-11, 4.83 ERA) as there pitcher going against seemingly ageless Bartolo Colon (10-6, 3.46). While the Snakes are at least competent on the road at 27-27 (+6.7 units), with Ray, they are  8-22 when the money line is +125 to -125 since last season.

Betting Trend – 56% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins

MLB – (959) CINCINNATI at (960) ST. LOUIS  7:15 ET  FSOH, FSMW (side and total)	An unsightly cloud of confusion surrounds St. Louis these days, with unheard of 27-33 record at home (-18.5 units) and losers of seven of last 10. In the series finale with Cincinnati, the Redbirds have swooned 20 cents to -155 favorites. Starting pitching has been the cornerstone of this franchise, but Jamie Garcia (8-8, 4.04) has just been average, like the starting pitching ERA of the Cardinals in the National League, which has them seventh. The Reds might be having dismal campaign, but do not blame Anthony DeSclafani (6-0, 2.94), who has done his job. Garcia is 7-1 with a fine 2.32 ERA at Busch Stadium against Cincy, which has helped push the total from 8.5 to 8. With the Reds problems with Garcia and 8-16 vs. lefties this season, St. Louis gets with call in low-scoring affair.

Betting Trend – 86% backing St. Louis and 74% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans St. Louis and Under

MLB – (971) BALTIMORE at (972) OAKLAND  10:05 ET  MASN, CSN-CA

Baltimore has lost the first two of four-game series in Oakland, with the Orioles offense as cool as the Bay Area night time air. Baltimore has three runs scored in the series and should have chances to score against Ross Detwiler (5.79 ERA), who was called up from Triple-A to start, after making seven relief appearances this season. This shifts the pressure to Yovani Gallardo (4-3, 5.47) to up his game and help his club with a strong effort, even with more limited stuff compared to younger days. In turn, those betting baseball have helped chase the money line from -150 to -125, with Baltimore the favorites. Gallardo has been a stopper of sorts with 14-7 mark if his squad is off a defeat (Team’s record), but they are atrocious 1-9 in road games after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Baltimore

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore


This interleague encounter has seen the total slip from 8.5 to 8. Washington’s Gio Gonzalez (7-9, 4.13) has been resurgent of late with a 2.03 ERA in his last five starts and Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin (11-4, 3.81) has been relatively solid all year, but is coming off worst start of the season. Though the making of lower scoring contest are in place, Tomlin is 17-5 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 since last year and Gonzalez is 13-2 OVER at home after giving up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings for his career. Throw in the Nationals are 11-0 OVER after scoring two runs or less in three straight games and you see where my money is headed.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 149-139-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 127-108-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 271-53-2


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