Intriguing Line Moves and Free Picks for April 19th

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For line moves we are going all baseball today, with the only real adjustment in the NBA based on the availability of Kevin Durant for Golden State. There was another big line move in MLB action, as Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers opened at -300 or higher depending on the sportsbook and at last look were sitting at around -250 against Colorado. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (76-42 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (957) WASHINGTON at (958) ATLANTA 7:35 ET  MASN2, FSSO

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Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Atlanta’s Julio Teheran (1-0, 0.95 ERA) has been outstanding in his three starts and the Braves opened as a -108 favorite over Washington and Joe Ross, who is making his first start of 2017. Because of so many days off, Ross started in the minors, yet those betting baseball think he and his teammates will perform well enough that the Nationals have been flipped to -120 road faves. Teheran is 3-3 (Braves 6-8) against Washington with a ERA of 4.04. While Washington clearly has the better club, Teheran and the Bravos are 8-0 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage of .340 or better.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Atlanta

MLB – (973) CLEVELAND at (974) MINNESOTA  8:10 ET  ESPN

Though Trevor Bauer (0-2, 8.44) has started horribly, baseball bettors are still confident enough in him and Cleveland and pushed the Indians from -115 to -135 or higher against Minnesota. While the Tribe’s offense had been up and down to this point, they are showing signs of rounding into form and will face left-handed rookie Adalberto Mejia (0-1, 4.05). Cleveland does look like the obvious choice, yet I wonder about them and Bauer at 3-8 lifetime with an ERA over 5 against the Twins and their early struggles with lefty starters.

Betting Trend – 58% on the Minnesota

Doug’s VPID Take– Lean Minnesota

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MLB – (977) BALTIMORE at (978) CINCINNATI  7:10 ET  MASN, FSOH

This total sinking from 9.5 to 9 comes with reservations. On one hand, Cincinnati’s Amir Garrett (2-0, 1.42) has been terrific to start his big league career, which could lead to lower score. On the other hand is Baltimore’s Ubaldo Jimenez, who owns a 10.38 ERA, which sounds like trouble. Maybe Jimenez finally pitches better, nevertheless, the Reds are 18-6 OVER playing against a team with a 62 percent or higher win percentage.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

MLB – (979) SAN FRANCISCO at (980) KANSAS CITY  8:15 ET  CSBA, FSKC

It is a rematch from 2014 World Series and Kansas City will be facing with their worst nightmare, Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 3.43). The matchup of MadBum and a hot Jason Vargas (2-0, 0.66) sounds like a lower scoring affair, yet the total has risen from 7.5 to 8. With both bullpens not especially effective, one can understand why this could happen. However, San Francisco is averaging 3.3 RPG in their last seven contests and the Royals are at 3.0 RPG for the season and batting a horrific .149 with runners in scoring position.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under  

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 86-105-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 43-50-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 127-151-4 ATS

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