Because of a prior commitment, no line moves on Thursday, but we will still cover the NFL preseason contest along with four baseball battles today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (215-176) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (959) CHIC. CUBS at (960) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET CSN-C, FSOH (side and total)
After building a 6-4 lead last night, the Cincinnati bullpen was knocked like ESPN for taking announcer off college football game and lost 13-9. With no Jon Lester, the Cubs turn to Mike Montgomery (3-6, 3.63 ERA) as their starter and baseball bettors are not impressed lowering the Cubs from -160 to -135 against Asher Wojciechowski (3-2, 5.36) and the Reds. The concern for bettors is Montgomery’s 5.13 ERA as a starter, which makes it all the more perplexing why the total was dropped dramatically from 11 to 10. Nevertheless, the Cubs are 16-2 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start since 2015. One more thing, Cincy is 8-24 against LH starters, scoring 4.1 RPG.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Cubs Win, Lean Over
MLB – (961) SAN DIEGO at (962) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSSD, FSMW (side and total)
Raise your hand if you saw San Diego scoring 12 runs on St. Louis last night, which is oh by the way three more than they had tallied in their five previous contests. Those betting baseball do not see that occurring two straight nights and they have bumped up the Cardinals up 25 cents to -180 and cut the total from 9 to 8.5. Veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacin (11-8, 3.98) takes the ball for the Padres, but he has a 7.05 road ERA. I have to agree the Cards are the call and they are 11-3 OVER vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game in the second half of the season.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID – St. Louis wins, Lean Over
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MLB – (969) BOSTON at (970) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET NESN, STO
Yesterday the total fell in this matchup of division leaders and it does again on Wednesday from 8 to 7.5. I was correct in saying the Over was the best bet last night, however, I’m on board with what is happening this evening. The pitching matchup of Corey Kluber (12-3, 2.67) and Drew Pomeranz (12-4, 3.31) certainly lends itself to runs being scarce and the bullpens are top notch. With Cleveland 71-46 UNDER this season and Boston 11-2 UNDER after a game where the bullpen was not used, the change appears correct.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (979) COLORADO at (980) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET FSKC
Colorado is playing like a tired squad. Remove the two outbursts of 17 and 8 runs recently and in the Rockies other 12 games since Aug. 6th, they have averaged 2.8 RPG. The Kansas City offense continues to hard to figure day to day, leading to the total dipping from 9.5 to 9. My worry is both starting pitchers have ERA’s just on either side of 5. With this, I will give just a nod to the OVER.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Ove
NFLX – Thursday – (253) CAROLINA at (254) JACKSONVILLE 7:30 ET
Carolina has gone from a Pick to -1.5 in this conflict of .500 clubs. I happen to agree with line move as I expect the Panthers to be real contenders again in the NFC South and they have the better overall team. Cam and ‘Cats win by a touchdown.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Carolina covers
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 164-181-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 117-91-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 272-239-14 ATS