It is back to diamond today for line moves and we have some very strong moves that are a little potentially hard to swallow. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (212-176) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (907) ARIZONA at (908) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET FSAZ, SNY
After meandering most of the season, Patrick Corbin (10-11, 4.25 ERA) has found a groove and enters tonight in the Big Apple on a string of 15 1/3 scoreless innings, in winning his past two starts. Bettors look at Tom Milone (1-2, 7.91) for the Mets, who has not pitched in the bigs since May 21st with a sprained knee and sent the Diamondbacks slithering from -145 to -165. Have to agree.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID – Arizona wins
MLB – (909) CHIC. CUBS at (910) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET WGN, FSOH
It does not take Aaron Judge distance to hit the ball out of Great American Ballpark. With these two NL Central rivals averaging scoring 13.2 RPG in their last seven contests, evidently John Lackey (10-9, 4.67) and Homer Bailey (4-6, 8.44) do not stand a chance and the total is exploded from 10 to 11. Lackey has been better than Bailey, especially since the All-Star break. In truth, I could see the Cubs winning 7-4, and will have a slight lean with Chicago at 14-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Over
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MLB – (917) BOSTON at (918) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET NESN, STO
I was perplexed to see this total in AL action sink from 9 to 8.5. Both offenses have been ringing up 5.5 or more RPG of late and each starting pitchers have been troubling in exact situations. Boston’s Doug Fister (2-6, 5.56) struggles in the traveling gray’s with a 7.27 ERA on the road. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (12-5, 3.76) has thrown much better in his past two outings after a bumpy stretch, yet has a 4.80 ERA at home and against the Red Sox checks in at an unsightly 6.43. With Carrasco 25-11 OVER as a home favorite the last few years, I’ll grab the OVER.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (925) TEXAS at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET ESPN
It is incredible the Angels are in the wild card chase, considering all their injuries to their pitchers, Mike Trout out for an extended period and sending out Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 5.16) every five games. Texas is also in this jumbled AL wild card race and beat the Halos 5-3 last evening to draw even closer. The Rangers are not loaded with pitching either and will start Tyson Ross (3-2), he of the 7.02 ERA. Very hard to imagine those betting baseball could shove Anaheim from -130 to -150, but it happened. These are two bet against pitchers and if both pitch to form, at least the Angels have better bullpen.
Betting Trend – 77% backing L.A.A. Angels
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A. Angels
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 162-181-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 115-91-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 269-238-14 ATS