Inside The Stats… Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

0
24
views

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com    Stats don’t lie.  People who interpret them do. Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game.  This week includes:

  • College Football: Arkansas, Florida International, Kansas, Maryland, and Northwestern
  • NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST

It’s that time of the season where we make a concentrated effort to back college football teams as underdogs that have excelled ITS, having won all – or all but one – of their games in total yardage, and to fade those favorites that have lost all – or all but one – of their games in the stats.

Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.

Play On ITS teams: Alabama 8-0, Central Florida 7-0, Georgia 8-0, LSU 7-1, Michigan 7-1, Michigan State 7-1, Ohio State 7-1, Oklahoma 8-0, Oklahoma State 8-0, South Florida 8-0, Texas San Antonio 6-1, Toledo 7-1, Virginia Tech 7-1, Washington 7-1, Washington State 8-1 and Wisconsin 8-0.

Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-7-1, East Carolina 0-7-1, Kent State 1-8, Kentucky 1-7, Rutgers 1-7, UL Lafayette 1-6, and UTEP 1-7.

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY

From this week’s Midweek Alert football newsletter it’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.

The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Five, as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below.  You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.

Positive Game Five Out Net Stats: Arkansas State +100

Negative Game Five Out Net Stats: Arkansas -119, Ball State -119, Clemson -116, Duke -140, Georgia Tech -188, Kansas State -133, Maryland -142, Utah -106

You notice only one team in the Positive Game Five Out Net Stats. That’s largely because once teams hit conference play after the opening month of the season the competition steps us.  While it’s admirable that Arkansas State has stepped up, it’s largely due to its rugged non-conference slate as opposed to softer competition in the Sun Belt conference.

LEAKING OIL

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory.  Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.

  • College Football: Kentucky 0-5

NFL: Buffalo Bills 0-5

UH OH

Not only does Georgia Tech appear on our ‘What Have You Done For Me Lately’ listing above, the Yellow Jackets are also tied for DEAD LAST in overall Red Zone Defense this season.

Their opponent, Virginia, needs one more win to become bowl eligible this season.  The Cavs will be at Louisville and at Miami Florida, before closing out the campaign against Virginia Tech after Saturday’s contest with Georgia Tech.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Among the 12 teams to be ranked in the initial Top 4 rankings since the College Football Playoff system started in 2014, only 5 of them actually went on to make the playoffs. In addition, none of the top ranked teams in the initial rankings has gone on to win the title, those being Alabama, Clemson and Mississippi State.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here