Important Line Moves and Free Picks for Oct. 6th


We are back on Thursday and have are still usual fall assortment of line moves in the NFL, college football and nor postseason baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (274-212 of late and recent 60-38 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NFL – (303) ARIZONA at (304) SAN FRANCISCO 8:25 ET  CBS		Oddsmakers waited till Monday to be comfortable with the idea Carson Palmer would not play and sent Arizona out as 2.5-point favorites. By early afternoon on Tuesday, the Cardinals had flown to -4, with the general belief the Cardinals are still the better team and Drew Stanton is still a better option at quarterback than Blaine Gabbert. Update: After reaching as high as -4.5, the bets have been coming in heavy on the 49ers and Arizona has gone to 79% of bets placed to current level below.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona covers

CFB – (305) TEMPLE at (306) MEMPHIS 8:00 ET ESPN

The Temple defense is not as strong as last year’s contingent, but is doing a good job in holding opposing teams to 20.4 PPG. With this in mind and Memphis off very physical contest on Saturday at Ole Miss, the total has fallen from 60.5 to 57.5. The Tigers offense still has plenty in the tank after all the off-season changes, nonetheless, the Owls are 6-0 UNDER against opponents average 37 or more PPG.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


We know Western Kentucky can score, but Louisiana Tech actually averages more points per game than the Hilltoppers (36 vs. 33.4 PPG). With the Bulldogs having a veteran QB in Ryan Higgins, they should have success moving the ball. However, in this game, I think we are the high end of the spectrum on the total, with it lifted from 65.5 to 68. Western Kentucky has a lot of Over trends you have to respect, but Tech coach Skip Holtz in 14-3 UNDER as home underdog in his career and I lean that direction.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (937) TORONTO at (938) TEXAS 4:35 ET ESPN

For a second straight season these teams square off in the postseason. Given his overall success, hard to fathom Cole Hamels and Texas at home wound fall off the saddle from -150 to -120, even against an offense like Toronto’s. What bettors have to be looking at is the Blue Jays Marco Estrada, who has a skinny 0.95 ERA in past three starts. Also, though Hamels did not take on Toronto this season, the lefty is six previous starts versus Jays and has a hefty 5.29 ERA. While the Blue Jays have a definite chance, like the fact Hamels are the Rangers are 23-8 at home.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Texas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 218-186-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 148-118-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 371-327-3


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