A little extra for our regular line moves on Wednesday that are usually NFL only, but with big line moves in college football and NL Wild Card clash, have an extra bonus for you. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (272-212 of late and recent 58-38 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CFB – (301) GEORGIA STATE at (302) ARKANSAS STATE 8:00 ET ESPN2
In this midweek Sun Belt showdown, we have sinking total, down to 54 from sportsbooks opening number of 56.5. Though Arkansas State has played a tougher schedule, their offensive numbers are way down from the past at 16. 7 PPG. In addition, while Georgia Southern’s ground game is stilling churning out 315 YPG, if you subtract the 54 points they hung on Savannah State, they are only at 26 PPG. Have to back this line move.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (933) SAN FRANCISCO at (934) N.Y. METS 8:05 ET ESPN
This is not complicated. The one sole reason San Francisco went from +102 to -115 is starter Madison Bumgarner. There has been no better pitcher in October than Mad Bum and he has a 5-0 record (Giants 5-1) against the Mets with a rock solid 1.80 ERA. Plus, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA in four career starts at Citi Field. Still, Noah Syndergaard is no slouch and has 2.51 ERA in 16 career starts made on more than five days’ rest.
Betting Trend – 62% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco
NFL – (303) ARIZONA at (304) SAN FRANCISCO 8:25 ET CBS
Oddsmakers waited till Monday to be comfortable with the idea Carson Palmer would not play and sent Arizona out as 2.5-point favorites. By early afternoon on Tuesday, the Cardinals had flown to -4, with the general belief the Cardinals are still the better team and Drew Stanton is still a better option at quarterback than Blaine Gabbert.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Arizona
NFL – (453) TENNESSEE at (454) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
Two AFC offenses scuffling to score points, both checking in at under 18 PPG. With each averaging two or more turnovers, that is the lead reason the total is dipped from 44 to 43. I cannot make a case like last week for Tennessee to go Over, knowing these squads are 7-1 UNDER in south Florida and Miami is 8-1 UNDER versus defenses allowing 5.65 or more YPP.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Under
NFL – (459) WASHINGTON at (460) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET FOX
Baltimore scored 27 points against Oakland, but the last 14 were of fluky variety. Though Washington is averaging respectable 24.7 PPG, the Ravens defense, especially at home, has the skill to keep them under that number and in turn the total has crumbled from 47 to 44.5. With the Redskins lousy tackling and being 13-2 OVER off one or move covers, we will go against the grain.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Under
NFL – (469) SAN DIEGO at (470) OAKLAND 4:25 ET CBS
Given these are two of the weaker defenses in the NFL, seeing the total plummet from 52.5 to 50 was alarming. When doing more research, we discovered San Diego is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more and Oakland is 9-1 UNDER at home after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. That is rather convincing argument.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
NFL – (471) CINCINNATI at (472) DALLAS 4:25 ET CBS
Cincinnati was released as one-point road underdog and by Tuesday morning shifted to one-point favorites. Best guess is football bettors are aware of the Bengals recent road success at 8-1 ATS, but not everyone might be aware Dallas under coach Jason Garrett is 14-29-1 ATS in Jerry’s World.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Cincinnati
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 216-186-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 148-118-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 369-327-3