Besides the NFL action today, we have the biggest line moves in each sport this Thursday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (356-281 of late and recent 139-107 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – (309) NEW ORLEANS at (310) CAROLINA 8:25 ET NBC (side and total)
For this NFC South matchup, the total has sunk from 53.5 to 52, with both defense playing better in recent weeks and the offense not producing at previous rates. Nevertheless, the lower total makes one consider New Orleans at 8-0 OVER against losing teams and Carolina at 9-0 OVER versus opponents with seven or more yards per pass attempt. The Panthers were released as -4 home faves and by Monday evening were down to -3, with bettors no longer trusting them. Update – The wagering public has remained satisfied where the side and total are and are ready for the game to commence.
Betting Trend – 59% backing New Orleans and 72% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New Orleans and Over
CFB – (311) LOUISVILLE at (312) HOUSTON 8:00 ET ESPN
The total in this anticipated contest is on the slide, down from 70 to 68. With two dynamic offenses and quarterbacks, you might not think that is the right direction. However, both these teams are in the Top 10 in total defense, and because they have somewhat similar quarterbacks, who can run and throw and they face them every day in practice, they at least know how to prepare. One should not ignore the Louisville is 8-1 OVER in November or that Houston is 13-3 UNDER off a home win.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (701) NEW YORK at (702) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET MSG, CSMA
With John Wall back and ready to go, the total on this contest has shot up four points to 209.5. Besides Wall, the Washington defense has allowed 105.4 PPG in their last five outings. Though initial reaction is that is too large a jump, when you look at betting trend, it is very obvious this is sharp money move and the Wizards are 17-4 OVER at home after playing two consecutive road games.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (767) EAST. KENTUCKY at (768) AUBURN 9:00 ET SECN
This appears to be basketball bettors investing in a team with a coach who has a very good ATS history. Auburn shot up from -12 to -15.5 against Eastern Kentucky. The Tigers program is on the rise and Eastern Kentucky is not expected to be a factor in the Ohio Valley. At Auburn, coach Bruce Pearl is 8-0 ATS at home after two consecutive non-conference games.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Auburn
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Auburn
NHL – (53) TAMPA BAY at (54) BUFFALO 7:05 ET SUN
Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos suffered a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee Tuesday and is out definitely. While Stamkos is an extremely big part for Tampa Bay, he’s been injured before and they went on without him and won. That is why is it eye-opening to see the Lightning slip from -170 to -135 at Buffalo. With the Sabres 3-15 at home when playing against a team with a winning record and Lightning goalie Benn Bishop 8-1 at Buffalo (only loss in OT), have to take the visitor.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Tampa Bay wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 265-250-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 169-142-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 446-407-4