Rather quiet on the postseason front in basketball and hockey and thus for line moves our attention turns to baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (103-62, 62.4% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (753) SAN FRANCISCO at (754) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET CSBA, SNY (side and total)
San Francisco is reeling and their 11-22 record is no accident, being outscored by 1.9 runs per game, which is the worst in baseball. Those betting baseball are giving the Giants a chance against Zack Wheeler (1-2, 4.78 ERA) and the Mets, dropping New York from -125 to -111. Wheeler is showing signs of rounding into form and San Fran’s Jeff Samardzija (0-4, 5.03) has two strong starts after a brutal beginning. The total has also slipped from 7.5 to 7. Maybe San Francisco wins but I cannot support a team that is 5-14 on the road. I also believe the higher score is a better choice with New York 9-0 OVER after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span.
Betting Trend – 55% backing San Francisco and 56% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York and Play Over
MLB – (957) PITTSBURGH at (958) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET RTPT, SNLA
Ivan Nova (3-3, 2.14) has pitched very well for Pittsburgh to this juncture and with Julio Urias (0-0, 0.84) of the Dodgers not sulking about starting the season in the minors, this seemed like a low scoring affair and sportsbooks sent out a total of 7. However, the Los Angeles offense has been percolating, averaging 7.4 RPG in their last seven contests and 5.7 at Dodger Stadium and the total is now at 7.5. My initial reaction was to agree, than I found Nova is 17-5 UNDER in road games since 2015 and L.A. is 13-3 UNDER after hanging 10 or more runs on the scoreboard.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
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MLB – (963) MINNESOTA at (964) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET FSNO, CSN-CH
With both offenses really struggling in their last series, it was mildly surprising to see the total up to 9 from opening 8.5. That meant it was time to determine why this happened and it starts with journeyman Mike Pelfrey (0-2, 5.02) starting for Chicago and it is no coincidence he is 7-0 OVER against winning teams with 54 percent or less win percentage. Hector Santiago (3-1, 2.78) has pitched well for Minnesota and returns to his original major league home versus the White Sox. Chicago has beat up left-handers to the tune of 5.8 RPG and the Twinkies are 10-2 OVER after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (979) DETROIT at (980) ARIZONA 9:40 ET FSD, FSAZ
Justin Verlander (2-2, 4.21) and Robby Ray (2-2, 3.47) both can strikeout a lot of batters and this would seem to hold the key for the total dipping from 9 to 8.5. Realistically, it would seem how many batters each hurler walks will be even more important and both hand out too many free passes. Let’s go the other way on the total with the Tigers 11-2 OVER in road games and the D-Backs 9-0 OVER at home after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 104-113-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 53-58-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 149-167-5 ATS