The NBA Playoffs continue to be quiet, but not in the Stanley Cup Playoffs where we have two Game 7’s. Also for line moves, two MLB interleague contests have side and total movement. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (105-63, 62.5% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NHL – (7) PITTSBURGH at (8) WASHINGTON 7:30 ET NBCSN
After being down 3-1 in the series, Washington has roared back with two convincing victories and looks to take the series against the defending champions Pittsburgh. The suddenly more aggressive Capitals opened as -170 favorites and early zoomed all the way to -200, before settling back at -185. While the Caps are certainly capable, that is a HUGE money line for a team without championship pedigree. I will lean with Washington only because they are 10-0 at home after scoring five goals or more in their previous game this season.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
NHL – (9) EDMONTON at (10) ANAHEIM 10:00 ET NBCSN
In the second Game 7, more attention is being paid to the total. The number itself has not moved, however, the juice certainly has as oddsmakers do not want to come off of 5.5. This total was released at 5.5 (-120) and that has gone up 20 cents to -140. The typical rationale is a series finale will be more conservative and nerves come into play. Still hard to overlook the OVER is 5-1 in this series and both offenses have not seen a red hot goalie or defenses they cannot beat. With Anaheim 6-0 OVER on home ice off a road loss, I will back the higher score.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
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MLB – (923) BOSTON at (924) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET NESN, FSWI (side and total)
Kyle Kendrick (0-1, 13.50 ERA) is at the end of the line for being a major league starting pitcher and Boston is using him as stop gap measure until others in the rotation can return. Baseball bettors do not like his chances of success as the Red Sox have gone from +100 underdogs to +120 and the total has risen from 9 to 9.5. Chase Anderson (2-0, 2.86) has gotten off to a fine start with Milwaukee, but he could be returning to career norms in permitting four runs of each of his two last starts. With the Brew Crew 9-1 OVER at Miller Park after surpassing eight runs, let’s take the higher score and side with the Brewers.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Over and 89% on Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, Lean with Milwaukee
MLB – (927) DETROIT at (928) ARIZONA 9:40 ET FSD, FSAZ (side and total)
It will be Detroit left-hander Matt Boyd (2-2, 3.78) to face Arizona right-hander Zack Godley (0-0, 3.60). This matchup means runs to those betting baseball at one of the best hitter’s parks and the total was beefed up from 10 to 10.5. With Boyd sporting a 5.68 ERA in three road starts, the Tigers are a burgeoning underdog from +105 to +120. The side seems like a coin flip, but not the total. Detroit is 12-2 OVER on the road and the D-Backs are 18-2 OVER at Chase Field having lost four of their last five games.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Over and 93% on Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, Lean Arizona
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 105-114-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 53-58-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 149-170-7 ATS