Important Line Moves and Free Picks for March 30th


With line moves in all the sports, it must be Thursday and so it is. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (44-24-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (705) L.A. LAKERS at (706) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET  TWSN, FSNO

What in the world, a Lakers vs. Timberwolves game with a sinking total after six straight OVER’s! Yes, it’s true, this total has shrunk three points to 218.5. Conventional wisdom would support this is incorrect since Los Angeles is allowing 114.2 PPG on the road and Minnesota has not held a team under 48 percent shooting in seven tries and surrendered 117 PPG in the process. So it’s an easy OVER right? Well not easy, but with this adjusted number I could lean that direction with the T-Wolves 15-4 OVER after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season, with average total score 219. Gulp.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over


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NBA – (709) HOUSTON at (710) PORTLAND 10:30 ET  TNT

Houston was held to 106 points by Golden State two nights ago and figures to explode offensively on TNT tonight. At least that is where the total is headed, up from 228.5 to 231 in Portland. There are indicators this could happen, as these two clubs are 7-2 OVER when facing each other and the Rockets have averaged 125 PPG in past three meetings with the Blazers. While this does not figure to be defensive game, with Houston listed as one-point favorite, it is worth noting they are 12-3 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Just sayin’.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

CBB – (711) GEORGIA TECH vs. (712) TCU  8:00 ET  ESPN	NIT championship is on the line and what is drawing the greatest amount of one-sided attention is the total. This has steadily climbed from 131.5 to 134. College basketball bettors are well aware Georgia Tech is a solid defensive crew that hold opponents to 39.4 percent shooting and 66.6 PPG and has real offensive limitations. TCU has made it this far be either shooting well or playing good defense depending on the night, but overall is rather ordinary in both areas. With expected nerves and a presumably slower pace, I prefer the UNDER here, particularly at higher price.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under


Why would one the best teams in the NHL be a falling favorite to team who has a very small chance to make the playoffs? Sportsbooks sent Columbus out as a -138 road favorite at Carolina and that money line has dwindled all the way down to -118. Here is why; the Hurricanes could set a franchise record for points in consecutive games, having a 8-0-4 record in their last dozen tries. The Blue Jackets need to keep winning to nail down home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs and possibly longer depending on results, but are facing a Carolina club that is 12-3 on home ice playing with double revenge. An upset is definitely possible.

Betting Trend – 96% backing Columbus

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Carolina


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 71-87-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 34-40-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 106-127-3 ATS


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