Important Line Moves and Free Picks for March 22nd


Back in the saddle today and we have very rare day of three NBA games with significant sides action for line moves. Also have a large totals move in the NIT going tonight. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (31-16-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (751) CHARLOTTE at (752) ORLANDO 7:05 ET  FSSE, FSFL

With both Eastern Conference teams winning twice after losing streaks, the important money is backing Charlotte on the road, who went from -4 to -5.5 at Orlando. The concern about the Magic is despite a high volume of shot attempts, their accuracy is leaves something to be desired, having shot under 41 percent or less in five of their past seven outings. While the Hornets could definitely sting anyone making NBA picks, teams like Orlando as home underdogs, revenging a road loss of 20 points or more, off a close home win by three points or less, are 6-26 ATS.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Charlotte

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Charlotte


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NBA – (753) INDIANA at (754) BOSTON 7:35 ET  FSMW, CSN-NE		Though Indiana has oddly alternated wins and losses in their past 15 contests (the last was a win), they are drawing support in what could be a losing situation for them. The Pacers have gone down from +8.5 to +7 in spite of the fact they are 11-24 and 13-22 ATS away from home. Though Boston has the better club and is at home, the recent seven-game history of this series has only seen a spread as high of four points, with most of the outcomes within reason and no blowouts. While it seem risky to be giving a touchdown, Indy is 3-12 ATS in road games off a home win this season, losing by 10.5 PPG.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Indiana

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Boston

NBA – (755) DETROIT at (756) CHICAGO 8:05 ET  FSD, WGN (local)

With neither of these Central Division teams playing well in the last couple weeks, it was eyebrow rising to see the Detroit shifted from +1.5 to -1.5 versus Chicago on the road. The Pistons have dropped four of five and are a pathetic 11-23 and 12-22 ATS in the traveling uniforms. The Bulls might have covered four of past five contests, but at whatever number they would fall in this range, they do not exactly inspire confidence with recent 2-8 SU mark. Probably best to leave this game alone, but if you must wager, know that Detroit is 4-15 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Detroit

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Chicago


Cal-State Bakersfield was won two games outright on the NIT road thanks to playing outstanding defense like they have all year. The Roadrunners have held opposing teams to 63.1 PPG on just 37 percent shooting. Those betting college basketball are unsure CSB can keep it going. Why I say this is despite the side action being rather stable, the total has jumped from 138 to 143.5, which would seem to favor UT-Arlington, who averages 85 PPG at home. However, Bakersfield has played four consecutive OVER’s in spite of playing great defense, but the highest total has been 135.5, nothing close to this number.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 66-77-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 29-40-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 99-113-3 ATS


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