Just absolutely crazy line moves on totals in the smaller postseason tournaments and we will break down the biggest one. Also, we line moves in the NBA and a First 4 game in the NCAA Tournament. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (22-8-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (607) NEW ORLEANS at (608) MIAMI 7:35 ET FSNO, SUN
With everyone reportedly healthy and ready to go, it is of note to see the total in this contest fall three points to 205. As we have seen for some time, the Miami offense has played a big part in their resurgence, which has them on just outside the playoff picture currently in the Eastern Conference. New Orleans would appear to have to finish the season like 12-3 SU to even has chance of postseason, which seems very unlikely. The Pelicans defense has taken huge strides of late thanks to Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, having allowed 95.6 PPG in past five games compared to season average of 105.7. This appears to be a valid line move with the Heat 17-5 UNDER having won four of their last five games.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
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NBA – (611) MEMPHIS at (612) CHICAGO 8:05 ET FSS, CSCH
Both Memphis and Chicago ended extended losing streaks on Monday and one team will have the beginnings of a modest turnaround later tonight. Sportsbooks are sending out signals with the help of those betting basketball it could be the Grizzlies, who have been taken from a Pick to -2. In truth, hard to make a case for or against either club, as both have been laboring. In digging for answers, I’ll lean with Memphis because of this system: When the line is +3 to -3 and a team like the Grizzlies are off a home win by 10 points or more, against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog, they are 32-11 ATS since 2013.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Memphis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Memphis
CBB – (623) USC vs. (624) PROVIDENCE 9:10 ET truTV
It is common knowledge these were the last two at-large bids in the field of 68 for the Big Dance. It did seem appropriate because of that circumstance this confrontation should open as Pick. However, that did not hold up with USC now listed as a 2.5-point favorite. All season, the Friars have been the better bet at 20-12 ATS and in expected tight outcomes, Providence is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Honestly, I believe the Trojans have the more talented team, but the Friars the last couple years are more clutch in crunch time and take this contest and advance.
Betting Trend – 56% backing USC
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Providence
CBB – (637) UC-IRVINE at (638) ILLINOIS STATE 9:30 ET ESPNU
In the last few years, the opening round of the smaller postseason tournaments have seen a vast number of OVER’s. With that in mind, yesterday all 11 games from these tourney’s were up at least 2.5 points, yet the UNDER finished 6-5. More of the same today with all but one tilt having a more bloated adjustment and this contest had the biggest, up from 124 to 131.5. Completely understand what the oddsmakers were thinking as both offenses have been below season averages in scoring of late and each is a very good defensive squad. With this being such an enormous move, let’s call for this to land somewhere in the middle of the line move and side with the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 59-70-1 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 28-39-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 89-106-2 ATS