With three afternoon baseball games, Thursday’s line moves is a little light, thus we added a WNBA contest with a total on the move. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (148-103, 58.9% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (901) WASHINGTON at (902) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET MASN, SNY
Just over a week ago, it looked like Washington would wrap up the NL East by Independence Day. With the Nationals having lost six of eight and the Mets on a 6-2 spurt, New York could close the gap further this weekend. Sportsbooks opened the Mets up as -116 favorites, but by noon, Washington was a -115 pick. Both Gio Gonzalez (5-1, 2.91 ERA) and Robert Gsellman (5-3, 4.95) have been in good form in their past three starts, but I prefer Gonzalez and Nats who are 14-7 against the Metropolitans.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
MLB – (963) SAN FRANCISCO at (964) COLORADO 8:40 ET KNTV, RTRM
The transformation between these NL West rivals is best explained by how the season series has gone. First place Colorado owns a 6-1 edge this campaign over last place San Francisco. The Rockies are a blossoming favorite, up from -145 to -165, being the better team and having a pitching advantage. Jeff Hoffman (4-0, 2.33) has been a stellar fill-in for Tyler Anderson, who is on the DL. The Giants Matt Moore (2-7. 5.28) has been like a batting practice pitcher versus the Rockies. Moore is 1-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five starts against Colorado and he has insidious 12.34 ERA in three starts at Coors Field. The Rocks come in 12-3 after allowing one run or less this season.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins
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MLB – (911) TAMPA BAY at (912) DETROIT 7:10 ET SUN, FSD
With Justin Verlander (4-4,4.68) showing signs of age at 34 and Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29) flat out ineffective in his last three outings (6.19 ERA), the total has jumped from 9 to 9.5 in the Motor City. On the surface this sounds right, but both pitchers have low ERA’s in multiple starts against their opponent. Nevertheless, when doing further digging, I found the Rays are 21-6 OVER after two or more consecutive Over’s and the Tigers are 14-3 OVER revenging a same season 3-game sweep.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
WNBA – (659) SAN ANTONIO at (660) LOS ANGELES 10:30 ET
Both these teams have played three consecutive OVER’s, yet the total has slipped from 165 to 161.5. The driving factor has been San Antonio’s inability to score on Los Angeles in their past five tries, averaging only 60 PPG, leading to five straight UNDER’s. With the Sparks 6-0 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more in three contests in a row, let’s follow their lead
Betting Trend – 69% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 128-133-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 80-72-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 200-192-11 ATS