The baseball season keeps chugging along and we continue to follow the biggest line moves and today we have five of them. One we will not be covering is the L.A. Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw rising from -300 to -315 Road Favorites! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (176-128), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (951) MILWAUKEE at (952) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSWI, RTPT
Two factors appear to be reasons why this NL Central battle total has been lifted from 8.5 to 9. One is the general ineffectiveness of Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA), who came out of nowhere last season at 31 and was 9-3 with an ERA under three. That has not been the case during an injury-plagued campaign. The other is the return of Starling Marte from an 80-game suspension, which should pay benefits to Pittsburgh offense which was already on the upswing in their last seven outings at 4.6 RPG (4.2 is season average). Color me less convinced of this happening and I’ll take the lower score, with the Pirates 11-1 UNDER this month due to great pitching.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (957) ARIZONA at (958) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET FSAZ, FSOH (side and total)
In spite of the Arizona offense going colder then the beer at your favorite watering hole in scoring 2.5 RPG in dropping eight of nine, the D-Backs have slithered from -126 to -145. No question Robbie Ray’s (8-4, 2.97) tiny 1.34 road ERA in eight starts plays a part, as does Cincinnati having been swept in four-game series by Washington, in which they tied a club record with 13 home runs allowed. The Reds will turn to pitcher Sal Romano, who makes his third big league start. With Cincy 3-16 after scoring two or fewer runs, the Snakes get the call. The total has also fallen from 10 to 9.5 with two scuffling offenses and I will support that as well.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Arizona and 61% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona wins and Under
MLB – (959) CHIC. CUBS at (960) ATLANTA 7:35 ET CSN-C, FSSE
There is a decided lack of faith in the Cubs tonight with John Lackey (5-9, 5.20) coming off the DL to start. The 38-year old has looked every bit his age all season and Chicago has crumbled from -130 to under -110 favorites. If Lackey pitches the same, the Cubs might be in trouble, however, the champs offense is blazing hot and against LH starters like Sean Newcombe (1-4, 4.26) tonight, they are 15-6 and averaging 6.2 RPG. Watch Chicago improve to 61-31 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins
MLB – (977) WASHINGTON at (978) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET MASN2, FSW
After a four-game blowout of Cincinnati, about the last role you might place Washington in is a growing underdog. Yet, the Nationals have blown up from -102 to +125 dogs at the Big A in Anaheim. Most baseball bettors have made a fortune wagering against Edwin Jackson (like yours truly), who take Joe Ross’s spot in the rotation with him out for the season. Jackson made his debut in the majors in 2003 and is still only 33. Jesse Chavez (5-10, 4.99) take the ball for the Halos and I just cannot back Anaheim as favorite even against Jackson. I however do like OVER 9.5 a great deal.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 140-151-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 91-80-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 223-210-11 ATS