It is Thursday, which means the variety back of sports for line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (413-326 of late and now on 21-6 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – (301) LOS ANGELES at (302) SEATTLE 8:25 ET NBC *New Side*
Los Angeles surrendered 42 points to Atlanta, but only allowed 286 yards to the Falcons, who has two defensive scores and took advantage of five turnovers. With this in mind and how these NFC West rivals usually play, the total has headed south from 40.5 to 38 points. What the new Rams interim coach can do to shake up the offense is a guess and you know the Seattle defense was humbled at Green Bay. L.A. is 7-0 UNDER off a loss by 21 or more. Update – The total has been bouncing around the last couple days, going as low as 37.5 yesterday, before being moved to 39 earlier today. The other development is Seattle is up two points to -16, which is a boatload is digits to hand out. If you think the Rams can score 13 points, you have to take the points.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Seattle and 69% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight leans on Los Angeles and the Under
NBA – (705) SAN ANTONIO at (706) PHOENIX 9:05 ET CW35, FSAZ
With San Antonio 13-1 and 9-4-1 ATS on the road, it makes no sense for the Spurs to fall from -8.5 to -7 at Phoenix. With San Antonio having played last night, the presumption is coach Gregg Popovich will sit one or two of his older players, which is what is driving this line movement. Though the Suns are the far younger squad, they have played OT in last two outings and they might not be as fresh as some would think and they are 1-11 ATS after a win by six points or less.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Phoenix
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Antonio
NBA – (707) PORTLAND at (708) DENVER 9:05 ET CSNW, ALT
With Portland 28th in points allowed at 111.4 and Denver 26th at 108.8, the sportsbooks sent the total out at 224. Those making NBA picks did not entirely agree and adjusted the total down to 220.5. However, smart bettors are aware of how the Nuggets play in certain situations and one that really stands out is they are 1-13 ATS at home off a road loss by 10 points or more the last three seasons, with average total score 210.1.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NBA – (709) NEW YORK at (710) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET TNT
Golden State is back home after five-game road trip, while for New York this is stop No. 4 on their five-game away sojourn. Basketball bettors have sent oddsmakers opening total plummeting, down four points to 222.2. Though we all are aware of the Warriors offensive tendencies, the Knicks are 13-2 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in two straight games the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (717) APPALACHIAN STATE at (718) N.C. STATE 7:00 ET ESPNU
Appalachian State is averaging 82 PPG and N.C. State is not far behind at 79.6. This has helped push the total on this tilt from 152 to 155. Why this could be correct is besides the offense, the Mountaineers are allowing more than 84 PPG on the road and the Wolfpack is over 75 PPG on the defensive end. While neither is a good free throw shooting team at just under 70 percent, both average 26 or more attempts per game, which that alone could lead to a higher score.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 294-286-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 185-154-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 508-463-5