We start a new month of line moves and as expected, it will contain several baseball encounters. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (190-148) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (957) ST. LOUIS at (958) MILWAUKEE 7:40 ET FSMW, FSWI
Good pitching matchup of two clubs trying to stay close to the first place Chicago Cubs. Carlos Martinez (7-8. 3.52 ERA) throws for the Cardinals and Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.38) for the Brewers. Milwaukee was sent out as a -101 underdog and have been bumped to a -115 favorite, in spite of what history tells us with Martinez 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in his career against the Brew Crew, mostly with better Cards clubs, while Nelson is 0-8 with a 7.01 ERA in 11 career encounters against St. Louis. Nelson is presently in better form, yet the Redbirds are 16-6 at Miller Park since 2015.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
MLB – (961) N.Y. METS at (962) COLORADO 8:40 ET SNY
Colorado is back in Denver after a rugged 2-4 road trip to St. Louis and Washington and would like to surpass Arizona in what is shaping up as an inevitable wild card clash. Though New York is hardly in Colorado’s class, the Mets has fallen from +140 to +120 road underdogs. That might make sense since both starting pitchers, Steven Matz (2-4, 5.51) and Jeff Hoffman (6-3, 5.58), have ERA’s over 11 in their last three starts (not a misprint). However, I will lean with the Rockies based on system of mine that is 41-9 since 2013.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado
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MLB – (967) CLEVELAND at (968) BOSTON 7:10 ET STO, NESN
Both public and sharp money has been flowing in on a Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 3.58) vs. Chris Sale (13-4, 2.37) pitching battle and it has lowered the sportsbooks posted number of 8 to 7. With two of the AL’s best bullpens backing these pitchers up, hard to say the line movement is incorrect, but from wagering perspective, the value has been sucked dry and I will only lean with the lower score.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (973) TAMPA BAY at (974) HOUSTON 8:10 ET SUN
I found it a bit perplexing to see Houston slip from -130 to basically a Pick (-105) at home against Tampa Bay. It is known Chris Archer (7-6, 3.80) is a fine pitcher and he is 4-2 with a 1.68 ERA over seven career starts against Astros. While Mike Fiers (7-5, 3.71) does not have the hard stuff of his mound counterpart, he has the blend of pitches to keep the hard-swing Rays hitters from making contact. In theory, I understand what some baseball bettors are thinking, nevertheless; Fiers and the ‘Stros are 28-13 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game and Archer and the Rays are 2-12 vs. foes outscoring the opposition by 0.5 or more runs a contest.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 147-164-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 101-85-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 233-224-11 ATS