In all the years I have been writing about this, the four biggest line moves (not including 30 cent moves on 200+ money lines) of the day, involve the same exact games as the prior day! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (191-151) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (909) ST. LOUIS at (910) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET FSMW, FSWI
Last night Milwaukee went from an underdog to a favorites, but tonight they are diminishing dog, dropped from -130 to -115 or less. Why I picked St. Louis yesterday was because of their record at Miller Park (now 16-7), yet this evening, I like what I have seen from Brent Suter (2-1, 2.40 ERA) and while I like the Cardinals Luke Weaver (0-1, 4.50), I’m not sure he’s ready for this kind moment and he showed nerves at home last week when getting into trouble and gave up grand slam against Arizona. With the Brew Crew 8-0 in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season, my money is on them.
Betting Trend – 71% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Milwaukee wins
MLB – (911) N.Y. METS at (912) COLORADO 8:40 ET SNY, SNRM
Colorado beat the Mets last night and moved ahead of Arizona in the wild card race. The Rockies are again a home favorite, however, they are seeing the money line dwindle from -165 to -145 or less depending on the sportsbook. It is clear, Mets starter Chris Flexen (0-1, 9.00) is not the reason for the adjustment, rather, Rocks starter Tyler Chatwood (6-11, 4.78 ), who has mental block about pitching at Coors Field and is 6-13 the last two years with an ERA over 6. Nevertheless, I vision Colorado will still hit against all the Mets pitchers and pound out a victory.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado
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MLB – (919) CLEVELAND at (920) BOSTON 7:10 ET ESPN
Last night’s tremendous pitching matchup and low total of 7 was anything but as the OVER was the right play with only 10 outs recorded in the contest, in Boston’s sensational 12-10 triumph. Baseball bettors are thinking that was outlier experience and again have lowered the total, this time from 10 to 9.5. Yesterday’s drop made sense, tonight, not so much with Rick Porcello (4-14, 4.55) facing Trevor Bauer (9-8, 5.25). The higher score is tempting, but get this, Bauer is 15-1 UNDER in road games playing against a team with a winning record the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (923) TAMPA BAY at (924) HOUSTON 8:10 ET SUN, SNSW
Tampa Bay’s Austin Pruitt (5-2, 6.63) has not been fooling many hitters as his ERA shows, which suggests Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.94) is the driving force in the total tumbling in this AL encounter from 9 to 8.5. I don’t see it, with Keuchel making only his second start since coming off the DL and Tampa Bay 20-6 OVER after a win by two runs or less. Add in the Astros are 16-6 OVER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season, you know what I’m doing.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 148-165-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 102-86-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 235-226-11 ATS