A little less movement than normal for NFL line moves this week, yet four have still popped up. Plus we have a pair of MAC games tonight which meet the criteria. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (340-268 of late and recent 123-94 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CFB – Today – (105) TOLEDO vs. (106) NORTHERN ILLINOIS 8:00 ET ESPN2
Toledo features a very good offensive club, one that averages 40.3 PPG and they will take on rival Northern Illinois, who can also score (35.6 PPG in MAC play) and is only so-so defensively (32 PPG). These figures have helped shove the total from 66.5 to 70. With this game at the home of the White Sox in Chicago, it appears the total is going the wrong way with Toledo 14-2 UNDER away after gaining 275 or more rushing yards, NIU is 12-3 UNDER after a home game and these teams on a 4-0 UNDER run in past four meetings.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – Today – (107) BOWLING GREEN at (108) AKRON 8:00 ET ESPNU
Bowling Green has gone from MAC champions to 1-8 this season and they are up to +9.5 road underdogs after the sportsbooks sent them out at +8. Akron has a bad defense after losing a great deal of talent from last year and it’s offense is only ordinary 29.8 PPG. However, the Falcons cannot stop anything in allowing over 45 PPG and better than 500 yards a game. Expect the Zips to zip by Bowling Green.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Akron
Doug’s VPID Take – Akron covers
NFL – (255) DENVER at (256) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET CBS
With the average total score of a Saints home game this season 67.5 points, it is little wonder the total jumped from 47 to 49, even against Denver defense. The Broncos pride was wounded in loss to Oakland, with defense having bad game and they will do everything possible to slow Drew Brees. Would not be surprised at all if this is contest is more like recent Seahawks and Saints contest.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Over
NFL – (257) LOS ANGELES at (258) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET FOX
With either Ryan Fitzpatrick wearing a cumbersome knee brace or Bryce Petty making his first start, the Jets are not expected to score many points and it is given Los Angeles will not and the total has moved accordingly from 42 to 40. Both teams have great talent in their front four’s to control any game and the Rams are 8-1 UNDER away when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
NFL – (263) GREEN BAY at (264) TENNESSEE 4:25 ET CBS
With Green Bay having allowed 30 or more points in three of past four games and Tennessee permitting 31.2 PPG the last month, no wonder the total has gone up from 48 to 49.5. Both defenses are clearly beatable and the offenses are capable of putting up points. With the Packers 23-9 OVER away off a home loss, like this move.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Over
NFL – (271) DALLAS at (272) PITTSBURGH 4:25 ET FOX
Those betting NFL football are thinking the same as us, Pittsburgh at -3 against one of the best in the league is too high and the Steelers are down to -2 against Dallas. Maybe Pittsburgh circles the wagons again and betters’ 15-2 ATS home record off an upset loss to a division rival, nevertheless, the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS on the road after two or more consecutive wins.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Dallas
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 252-241-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 166-136-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 429-393-3