Too many football bettors miss a great opportunity to build a bankroll before the start of the NFL season. This writer here at ScoresandStats.com was among that thought that way. However, like trying to figure out everything an i-Phone can do, with some work and diligence you can determine a how to beat the oddsmakers also.
This football bettor, writer, and handicapper has assembled a 78-54, 59 percent recent in the last 15 years since creating this method and you can too! Here is how to set up your plan of attack, now that the worthless Hall of Fame “game” is out-of-the-way.
Start Being Prepared To Win
Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your teams. This does not mean you have to read hours of information about every given NFL club. Instead, use your time wisely to understand the head coaches and the tendencies of the teams. In August, a head coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand.
Here a quick list of what we are referring to with the most recent results.
Kansas City 34-62 ATS
Dallas 42-62 ATS
N.Y. Jets 36-21 ATS (as underdogs)
Seattle 32-18 ATS (as underdogs)
Week 1 – Know Your Head Coaches
An important factor is first-year coaches. This season we have seven head coaches guys who are in charge of teams. They are Mike Vrabel (Titans), Jon Gruden (Raiders), Pat Shumur (Giants), Frank Reich (Colts), Matt Patricia (Lions), Steve Wilks (Cardinals) and Matt Nagy (Bears). Each will want to establish how they will be running their programs and nothing pays off like winning.
One other area that should be considered is coaches in trouble. These fellows know their jobs are in jeopardy and have to deliver wins, even if it has to start in August. Among those that could be a good bet this month are John Harbaugh (Ravens – he usually does anyway in the preseason), Hue Jackson (Browns) and Jay Gruden (Redskins).
Week 2 – Ready – Aim – Fire on Strong plays
The first week is a couple of isolated plays based on the past and what certain coaches are trying to accomplish. The most important factors this week are earlier performance and motivation. These are largely tied together and you can take advantage of them.
In 2016, the Denver Broncos as the Super Bowl champions shutout Chicago 22-0 in Week 1 as one-point road underdogs. Seemingly satisfied, Denver returned home and lost to San Francisco 31-24 as six-point favorites.
What to look for also is teams that either won or lost by double digits against the spread. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, that is why it is not uncommon for teams to bounce back or let up this time of year and this creates situations you can profit from.
Coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team might be peaking too early and let them slack a bit after an exceptional performance, while closely monitoring they don’t lose their edge.
Week 3 – Dress Rehearsal For the Regular Season
This is the most important week of NFL preseason football, at least for coaches to get a real sense of where their team is and if they are on schedule. Starters will play a half to about two-thirds of the game and a semblance of a game plan is implemented.
The coaches and players place added importance on this week and the goal is to give a strong showing and make both parties comfortable with the notion they are ready for the regular season to commence.
Once again coaches still matter. Some head coaches still will push their entire teams to play all four quarters, while others are just concerned about the starters this week and will primarily turn the games over to their assistants to run. This is noteworthy with back-ups playing and the games being fairly evenly matched.
Wagering on six to eight games in Weeks 2 and 3 is not unreasonable.
Week 4 – Be Wise, Not Foolhardy
The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams, trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. Be cautious with your plays here. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of might worth the risk. If not, the regular season starts in a week and that is what you care about most.
There you have it, that is your primer, now put it to work and let’s make some cash!
Doug Upstone wrote this for ScoresandStats.com.