For line moves, let’s move ahead into all the big ones for Week 1 of the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (316-247-5 long term, 125-95-3 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NFL – (453) PITTSBURGH at (454) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS *New* Total
With no Le’Veon Bell all preseason and likely doubtful to even suit up looking for a bigger payday, Pittsburgh is down from 6.5 to -4. Cleveland will be better this season, in part because they could not be any worse than 1-31 the past two years. Yet, to take the Browns still requires some Bill Raftery “onions” with them 2-10 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less. Update – For the most part Pittsburgh and -4 has held up, however about half the books have gone back up to -4.5. The total has plunged like from 47 to 41. Because the Steelers have been down the road before with LVB, they will be fine and win 20-14.
Betting Trend – Was 74% backing Pittsburgh, now 71% and 66% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh covers and Under
NFL – (455) SAN FRANCISCO at (456) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Though San Francisco is highly regarded in many betting circles, when they are facing Minnesota on the road, evidently that is a different story. The 49ers have been upped from +4.5 to +6.5 in the land of 10,000 lakes. The Vikings Mike Zimmer has replaced Brian Billick as every bettor’s favorite coach with his incredible 44-22 ATS record. When the Vikes are home favorites. they are a delectable 18-7 ATS.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota covers
NFL – (457) CINCINNATI at (458) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
This AFC affair was sent out with Indianapolis as the one-point favorite long before we knew if Andrew Luck would really be playing this season. With Luck a lock to start, the Colts were ridden to -2.5 over Cincinnati. The Bengals are the Bengals, you just never know. However, the Cincy defensive line looks like it could handle and a more talented, yet rebuilding Indy O-Line and the Bengals are 19-10 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less. Update – In spite of a lot of Cincy support, it’s not sharp money and the line has stayed at 2.5.
Betting Trend – Still 74% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
NFL – (459) BUFFALO at (460) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
AJ McCarron was supposed to start for Buffalo and Plan B was rookie Josh Allen. Instead, because of injury, ineffectiveness and trade, Nathan Peterman will be under center for Buffalo and they have scattered from +3.5 to +7. With this the total has also been adjusted downward two points to 40.5. Baltimore is a sharp 15-5 ATS at home the first two weeks of the season, with the average total score 38.4 PPG. Update – The total has not budged, but sportsbooks begrudgingly took the Ravens too -7.5. Not a fan of big numbers in Week 1, but would take Baltimore or pass and prefer the Under.
Betting Trend – Was 95% backing Baltimore (now 94%), Was 81% on Under (now 80%)
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Baltimore and Under
NFL – (463) TAMPA BAY at (464) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
New Orleans looks loaded and ready and we all know the Bucs Ryan Fitzpatrick is one play away from a turnover. This has helped push the Saints from 7.5 to 9.5, with the total slipping from 51.5 to 49.5. New Orleans should roll, but anything over a touchdown in Week 1 is hard to back. On the total, Tampa Bay is 12-3 UNDER when the total is 49.5 or higher. Update – The total is rock solid, however, about 35 percent of books check have the Saints at -10. I’ll say New Orleans wins 28-21.
Betting Trend – 92% backing New Orleans (now 91%), 57% on Under (now 47%)
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Tampa Bay and Under
NFL – (471) SEATTLE at (472) DENVER 4:25 ET FOX *New*
Expectations are quite low for these two former division rivals after years of success. Football bettors are having even less to start the season on Seattle, who’s up from +1.5 to +3. I really wanted to back the Seahawks, but I cannot overlook the fact they are 2-11 ATS in September road games under Pete Carroll.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Denver
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver
NFL – Monday – (481) L.A. RAMS at (482) OAKLAND 10:20 ET ESPN
When looking at the two rosters, it is Pepsi Clear that the Rams are the better team in all facets. That is why they were elevated from -1 to -4 point favorites in Oak-Town. And one could see the Raiders are 18-27-2 ATS the last decade as home underdog is not a good omen, just don’t forget L.A. North is 16-32 ATS in September and 12-30 ATS as favorites this month. Update – There might be more movement come Monday, both nothing at this time. I’ll suggest a hunch Raiders Nation and Chucky hang in.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Los Angeles, now 84%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets ( ATS) in order: Ravens, Saints and Rams
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets ( ATS) in order: Jaguars/Giants UNDER, Bills/Ravens Under and Chiefs/Chargers OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 170-174-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 68-60-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 255-242-9 ATS