Time to review the line moves in college football from early in the week along with the new ones that have popped up as the week progressed. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (316-246-5 long term, 125-94-3 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow with the NFL.
CFB – (303) LIBERTY at (304) ARMY-WP 12:00 ET CBSSN
Few bettors know much about Liberty College, other than maybe religious types since this is what televangelist Jerry Falwell built. Liberty moved up to FBS status this season as an independent and no doubt wants a conference to call home. For now, enough football bettors are paying attention and moved the Flames from +12 to +9 at Army, with Liberty 11-1 ATS as road underdogs. Update – We are down one digit to 8. We find out this week if Liberty is way undervalued after an impressive start. Sharp money in the Black Knights and I concur.
Betting Trend – Was 55% backing Army, now 57%
Doug’s VPID Take – Army covers
CFB – (309) WESTERN MICH. at (310) MICHIGAN 12:00 ET FS1
So much for the new and improved Michigan offense with Shea Patterson at quarterback. The Wolverines will try and heat up a Western Michigan defense that was torched for 55 points against Syracuse. Michigan’s vaunted defense will try and slow the Broncos usually potent offense and the Harbaugh’s are up three points as favorites to -27.5. Update – The market is completely satisfied at 27.5 and so are the sportsbooks. Michigan’s defense sets up at least two scores and the Wolverines win by more than 30.
Betting Trend – Was 91% backing Michigan, now 84%
Doug’s VPID Take – Michigan covers
CFB – (313) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (314) PURDUE 12:00 ET BTN *New*
Purdue outgained Northwestern by 71 yards last week in their loss, but a -3 turnover margin sealed their fate. But bettors are thinking the Boilermakers clean this up and moved from them -14 to -17. I’ll bite on the logic, but Eastern Michigan is on an 18-5 ATS run, which includes 11-1 ATS as a road dog.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Purdue
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Eastern Michigan
CFB – (319) FLORIDA INT. at (320) OLD DOMINION 7:30 ET beIN *New*
FIU got the cover against Indiana in defeat, but ODU was lit up by Liberty and lost 52-10. The visiting Panthers opened as a two-point favorite, but the Monarchs have been flipped to -1.5 point home faves by midday Friday. ODU brought back more starters than FIU, but I cannot get past the Monarchs are 3-14 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Old Dominion
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean FIU
CFB – (323) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (324) KANSAS STATE 12:00 ET ESPN
With Kansas State scuffling mightily to hold off South Dakota 27-24, thanks to a -4 turnover differential, the Wildcats have been shoved from +7 to +9.5 home underdogs. Mississippi State once again believes they belong in the upper echelon of the SEC, but K-State is 21-9 ATS as home underdogs with Bill Snyder as coach. Update – Not unexpectedly, a regression on the visitor, with Mississippi State back to -7.5, thanks to Coach Snyder’s reputation mattering. At over a touchdown the Wildcats are still worth a look.
Betting Trend – Was73% backing Mississippi State, now 63%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas State
CFB – (325) ARIZONA at (326) HOUSTON 12:00 ET ABC/ESPN2 *New*
Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin returns to the place that launched his big-time coaching career. The focus of football bettors is the total and they moved it big time from 66 to 71. All the value of higher score has been taken out and I’m not sure one team even reaches 30 points. Let’s go the other way and besides, Houston is 17-6 UNDER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with the average score 55 total points.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (339) MEMPHIS at (340) NAVY 3:30 ET CBSSN
Navy’s decisive loss at Hawai’i created doubters early in the week and the Middies have sailed from +3.5 to +6.5. However, before hopping on Memphis, realize the Tigers are 0-7 ATS as single-digit favorites against an opponent off an SU setback as a favorite, while Navy is 23-14 ATS as single-digit dogs. Update – On Thursday, Memphis went to -7 before falling back to -6.5. Public backing the Tigers but wise guys love Navy.
Betting Trend – Was 86% backing Memphis, now 73%
Doug’s VPID Take – Navy covers
CFB – (349) BAYLOR at (350) UTSA 7:00 ET Facebook
Arizona State was picked last in the Pac-12 South according to most experts and they just destroyed UTSA 49-7. With this, the Roadrunners scooted from +9.5 to +15 against visiting Baylor. I’m not saying the line movement is not warranted, just remember the Bears surrendered 466 yards to Abilene Christian, yea those Wildcats. Plus, UTSA won 17-10 last year in Waco. Update – The Bears have ticked up to -16 and that looks like the sweet spot. If Baylor plays any defense they win by 20 at least.
Betting Trend – Was 98% backing Baylor, now 90%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baylor
CFB – (365) CLEMSON at (366) TEXAS A&M 7:00 ET ESPN *New*
DE-Fense! That is the call among those betting college football as the total in this important ACC-SEC showdown has crumbled from 57 to 52.5. We know Clemson’s going to bring it and Jimbo Fisher knows a thing or two about playing the Tigers at FSU before taking the cash and becoming an Aggie. Check this out; when the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a non-conference game in the first month of the season, and two teams have eight or more defensive starters returning, the UNDER is 34-12 of late.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (2-2 ATS) in order: Oklahoma St., N.C. State, Ohio State, Baylor, Arkansas and UNLV
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (5-0) in order: Miss.St./Kan. St. OVER, UConn/Boise St. UNDER, UCLA/Okla. OVER, Ark./Colo.St. Over and Baylor/UTSA OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 170-174-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 67-60-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 254-242-9 ATS