Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Sept. 27/28

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For lines moves, let’s talk some football, shall we! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (350-275-6 long term, 159-123-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow

NFL – (101) MINNESOTA at (102) L.A. RAMS  8:20 ET  FOX     

These are supposed to be two of the best defensive teams in the NFC, yet the total rose from 47 to 48.5. What gives? Last year’s matchup in Minnesota was an easy Under with Vikings a 24-7 winner with the total at 46. With Vikes decided underdogs, they are 20-8 UNDER when catching points. However, if the oddsmakers are correct, the Rams should win essentially win 28-21 and they are 9-1 OVER when both teams reach 20 points. I will side with the lower score with the defenses making enough plays.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CFB – Friday (107) UCLA at (108) COLORADO  9:00 ET  FS1 (side and total)

Interesting dynamics to this Pac-12 tilt. UCLA cannot score and Colorado has been stingy in allowing points. The Buffalos do score and the Bruins cannot stop anybody. So how do you go about making picks? Football bettors weighted in and dropped the total from 62.5 to 59. The spread opened with Colorado favored by -11, it fell to -8.5 on Wednesday morning, but as of early Thursday afternoon was moving back up to -9.5. In value terms, anything below 10 indicates the Buffs are a solid choice with UCLA 9-19 ATS recently. The total is a tougher call, but if you split the teams scoring averages, you land on 57, making this a nod to the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Colorado, 70% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Colorado and Under

NFL – (255) CINCINNATI at (256) ATLANTA  1:00 ET  CBS

It is highly unusual to see totals move four points in the NFL once we get to Week 4 unless there is a notable injury. That’s why it seems to odd to have the total climb from 48 to 52 in this nonconference clash. Both teams are in the Top 8 in scoring and the bottom half of the league in points allowed. In theory, the higher total makes sense, but will it play out that way?

Betting Trend – 92% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (261) N.Y. JETS at (262) JACKSONVILLE  1:00 ET  FOX

Jacksonville went to the AFC championship and had New England beat, but did not put them away. The Jaguars finished the job in a manner of speaking two weeks ago at home against the Patriots, yet still does not have the public’s confidence, even facing a team like the Jets. The Jags have been lowered from -9 to -7.5, which strikes odd with Gang Green is 42-67 ATS off a road loss. Based on the line movement, influential money adjusting line.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Jacksonville

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (267) SEATTLE at (268) ARIZONA  4:05 ET  FOX

Last week Arizona was lowered two points at home and that proved correct. This week the Cardinals have flown from 37 to 39 when taking on Seattle. There evidently a trust factor that Josh Rosen will do more with Arizona’s offense or at least have a Pick 6 for the Seahawks. The Redbirds are 7-0 UNDER at home the first month of the season and Seattle is 11-3 UNDER facing NFC competition.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (269) CLEVLAND at (270) OAKLAND  4:05 ET  FOX

It looked peculiar to see this game open as a Pick. Sure, Oakland is 0-3 and been outscored 64-17 in the second half in the new Gruden era. But come on, Cleveland is 2-32-1 SU the last two-plus seasons and has not won back to back games since the middle of the 2014 season. Rationale thinking prevailed and the Raiders are up to -2.5.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Oakland

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 187-195-9 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 81-70-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 285-277-10 ATS

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