Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Sept. 23/24

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Let’s get into some line moves in college football, some fresh and some baked. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (339-267-6 long term, 148-115-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.

NFL – (469) DENVER at (470) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET  CBS  *New*

The total in this AFC affair has been cooked up from 44 to 46 and I understand why. Baltimore’s offense is better than they showed the first half against Cincinnati and they should move the ball thru the air against Denver. The Broncos have the No. 4 offense in the league. But here is where it goes sideways. Denver is only 24th in yards per point in the league and the average score of a Vance Joseph-coached Broncos team is 42.3 total points. Add in the Ravens are 9-2 UNDER after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored and I’m on the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (475) GREEN BAY at (476) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET  *New*

When you think about dictating the tempo of a game you think Green Ba, not Washington. This season the Packers are 2-0 to the OVER and the Redskins are 2-0 to the UNDER side. That is what makes the total falling two points to 45.5 rather fascinating. I have to go against the line movement with Green Bay 15-3 OVER in last 18 away games.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (479) SAN FRANCISCO at (480) KANSAS CITY  1:00 ET  FOX

With how explosive Kansas City’s offense has looked, bettors had no problem raising the Chiefs from -4 to -6.5 over San Francisco. K.C is averaging 40 PPG and though they might not tally that many points, the Niners do allow 25.5 PPG. But, you still have to wonder how many points will Andy Reid’s porous defense will allow when they are 29th in scoring defense and 32nd defending the pass. Update – The spread has held up all week at -6.5. I’ll back K.C. who is 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards.

Betting Trend – Was 86% backing Kansas City, now 81%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas City

NFL – (483) CHICAGO at (484) ARIZONA 4:25 ET  FOX

The scoreboard operator might be bored with the total down two points to 38, which is the lowest total of Week 3. It is not hard to figure why the total is low with the Bears and Cardinals. Chicago has scored three offensive touchdowns (plus two on defense), while Arizona has made one trip into the end zone this season. This lack of scoring is backed up with the Bears being 29th in total offense the Redbirds the worst in the NFL at a mere 175 yards a game. Update – A modest buyback to 38.5, but until Josh Rosen takes over for the Cards, I’m on the UNDER.

Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Over, now 65%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (487) NEW ENGLAND at (488) DETROIT  8:20 ET  NBC

With these two defense units in the bottom half of points allowed in the NFL, the total shot up from 50 to 53. Though both offenses have misfired more than anticipated to this juncture, both quarterbacks could get hot and throw the pigskin around. Should we pay attention to New England at 19-7 OVER after allowing 450 or more total yards and Detroit 17-4 OVER at home off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog? Update – The total went up one tick to 53.5 and I will ride the trends.

Betting Trend – Was 82% backing Over, now 81%

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – Monday (489) PITTSBURGH at (490) TAMPA BAY  8:15 ET  ESPN (side and total)

The Steelers are scuffling and face a white hot Tampa Bay offense. With this, Pittsburgh is down a point to -1 and the total up from 51 to 54. With how both teams are playing, it would be hard to bet against a higher score. But does Pittsburgh deserve your trust? And how much longer before Ryan Fitzpatrick returns planet earth and goes back to journeyman career? Update – About half the books have moved Pitt to -1.5 and the total has backed up to 53.5. I will trust the Steelers are ready to play despite tons of wise guys on the Bucs. Both secondary’s lead to OVER action.

Betting Trend – Was 75% (same) backing Tampa Bay, 89% on Over, now 85%

Doug’s VPID Take – Steelers cover and Over

 

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (4-2 ATS) in order: Patriots, Bears and Vikings

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (4-2) in order: Chargers/Rams OVER, 49ers/Chiefs OVER and Steelers/Bucs OVER

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 180-191-9 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 76-68-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 276-267-10 ATS

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