Let’s get into some line moves in college football, some fresh and some baked. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (339-267-6 long term, 148-115-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
CFB– (313) N.C. STATE at (314) MARSHALL 7:00 ET CBSSN *New*
N.C. State brought back a very inexperienced team, but at least had their quarterback. Marshall returned 18 starters but had to find a signal-caller. Sportsbooks sent his nonconference clash out at 52 and after stewing all week it shot up to 56. I like both defenses and will forecast a more defensive game and of late the Wolfpack is 17-8 UNDER on the road.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB– (321) WEST. KENTUCKY at (322) BALL STATE 3:00 ET ESPN3
Expectations were very low for both these teams coming into the season and for the most part Western Kentucky and Ball State are meeting them. However, it does appear that Ball State’s much closer game with Notre Dame is carrying more weight than the Hilltoppers losing by just three last Saturday at Louisville, as the Cardinals have flown from a Pick to -3. Let’s see how this plays out as the week continues. Update – The marketplace is satisfied with where this game has been all week as Ball State remains a three-point pick. Not much to choose from here, but, I’ll support the Cardinals because of a better offense and defense.
Betting Trend – Was 75% backing Ball State, now 63%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Ball State
CFB– (313) BOSTON COLLEGE at (314) PURDUE 12:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
Boston College has arguably their best offensive team since Matt Ryan was playing for the Eagles. Purdue can also score and does not play a whole lot of defense. With this, the total went up like the consumption of Bud Light’s in Cleveland Thursday night from 60 to 65. There seems little chance the Boilermakers will slow down B.C. Purdue has shown they will not quit when trailing which is why their contest with Missouri went OVER last Saturday. Because the Boilers will turn the ball over, that will be the impetus for an OVER call.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – (337) CLEMSON at (338) GEORGIA TECH 3:30 ET ABC
Georgia Tech’s defense and turnovers have cost them as they have lost their past two games, both as favorites. This explains the Yellow Jackets being stung by bettors and spiking from +14 to +17 against Clemson. The Tigers have won three straight in this series (2-0-1 ATS) and are 11-2 ATS in road games after playing two nonconference contests. Update – There has been a larger buyback than anticipated with Clemson at -15.5. The Tigers know how to stop the Jackets option offense and get this one done.
Betting Trend – Was 80% backing Clemson, now 88%
Doug’s VPID Take – Clemson covers
CFB– (339) OHIO U. at (340) CINCINNATI 12:00 ET ESPNU *New*
Though it is still only Week 4 of the college football season, Cincinnati being tied for second in fewest points allowed (8.0) is still a good accomplishment. This is the driving force for the total to crumble five points to 52 in the battle of southern Ohio schools. The Bobcats are scoring and allowing a lot of points, which makes this a more challenging choice. While the Over is very tempting, both teams have strong UNDER tendencies, which includes Cincy at 10-2 UNDER after scoring 50 points or more. While the betting trend makes sense, that is more one-sided action than I would have guessed.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (351) BUFFALO U. at (352) RUTGERS 12:00 ET BTN
It is a rare occasion when at MAC club is favored at Big Ten football stadium. But this is Rutgers we are talking about and what they have brought to the Big Ten on any level is debatable. The Scarlet Knights, after losing at Kansas by 41, have climbed from +2.5 to +6 point home dogs to Buffalo U. Here is what you need to know, Buffalo is +6 in turnover margin and Rutgers is -9 after just three games. Update – A minimal reduction on the Bulls to -5.5. Thought about Rutgers until I found they are 1-8 ATS after a loss by 28 or more points.
Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Buffalo, now 77%
Doug’s VPID Take – Buffalo covers
CFB – (355) STANFORD at (356) OREGON 8:00 ET ABC
Those betting football have announced what they think, at least early, of this Pac-12 battle. Oregon as a 1.5-point home fave and the Ducks have been flipped to +2 versus Stanford. The Cardinal have avoided a slow start as the past few years and look like the more physical squad. Update – Sportsbooks are split on Stanford at -2 or -2.5. The public is backing the Cardinal, but the sharp money is on the Ducks. Myself, I prefer Stanford’s defense which I think will be the difference.
Betting Trend – Was 67% backing Stanford, now 70%
Doug’s VPID Take – Stanford covers
CFB – (357) FLORIDA at (358) TENNESSEE 7:00 ET ESPN
This used to be a meaningful confrontation in the SEC East. It still has implications, but neither appears in Georgia’s class. Florida was released at -7 and is down to -4.5. Both teams rely on the run and both defenses are light up front and can be shoved around. The Gators are 9-4 and 8-4-1 ATS in recent visits to Knoxville. Update – Tennessee has been lowered to +4. I think this SEC showdown comes down to run defense and the Vols appear more skilled in controlling the line of scrimmage. A three-point game either way.
Betting Trend – Was 71% backing Florida, now 57%
Doug’s VPID Take – Tennessee covers
CFB– (313) ARKANSAS at (314) AUBURN 7:30 ET SECN *New*
This game was chosen only because Auburn blew up from -24 to -29 in SEC action against Arkansas. With the way the Chad Morris era has started, former Hogs coaches Bret Bielema and Bobby Petrino are already looking not so bad. If the Razorbacks can lose by 27 at home to North Texas and they lost the last two times they faced the Tigers by 32 and 53 points, why can’t they be crushed again by 30 or more by Auburn?
Betting Trend – 82% backing Auburn
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Auburn
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (9-6 ATS) in order: Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Navy and Memphis
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (10-5) in order: ECU/USF UNDER, Louisv./Virg. UNDER, Buff. Rutg. UNDER, Geor./Misso. OVER and S. Carol./Vandy UNDER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 180-191-9 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 76-68-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 276-267-10 ATS