The NFL takes the center stage on Sunday and we have updates on previous line moves along with all the latest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (331-255-6 long term, 140-103-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NFL – (261) INDIANAPOLIS at (262) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET CBS
The Redskins evidently left a strong enough of an impression last week to garner support for their home opener and have been elevated from -4.5 to -6. However, this a team with many skeletons in the closet and they are 14-31 ATS in September home games. Update – The line has been unchanged all week. Until I see something different, I cannot bring myself to back the Redskins at home at this price.
Betting Trend – Was 72% backing Washington, now 67%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indianapolis
NFL – (267) L.A CHARGERS at (268) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS *New*
The total on this AFC affair dropped two points to 42.5 midweek and that seemed to coincide with the announcement that Josh Allen was going to start at quarterback for the Bills. Though Allen would never say, that has to hurt a little that Nathan Peterman is thought to be worth two more points than he is. As far as the game itself Buffalo can only play better than last week and let go with LA South winning 24-17, leading to UNDER.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (269) HOUSTON at (270) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET CBS *New*
New Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel said this week that both Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert will play. This is a classic example of two heads are not better than one when it comes to betting totals, as it has fallen from 45 to 43. The total has been split in the past half dozen meetings, but sportsbooks numbers have always been low, from 38.5 to 43 since 2014. I will back a hunch and say we land on 44 with one team winning 24-20.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (271) KANSAS CITY at (272) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET CBS
Somebody is forecasting a potpourri of points in Pittsburgh Sunday, lifting the total from 50.5 to 53. Kansas City has a host of game-changers that can adjust a scoreboard in one play. The Chiefs allowed 28 points last week and it would have been more if Chargers receivers had not dropped sure TD passes. But should you think the other way with K.C.15-5 UNDER off an AFC West winner? Update – The total has been bumped up over so slightly to 53.5. Let the trend be your friend here.
Betting Trend – Was 79% backing Over, now 81%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (273) MIAMI at (274) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
Oddsmakers made Miami a one-point favorite before the Jets played on Monday night. After Gang Green made Detroit look sickly, the Flyboys were flipped to field goal home favorites. Maybe this is too much on New York and it should be followed closely, nonetheless, the Jets are 12-4 ATS in Jersey versus the AFC under Todd Bowles. Update – Jets still hanging in at -3 and while a Miami win would now shock me, the Dolphins are 4-14 ATS in AFC East roadies of late.
Besides the Jets, the other three squads that played Monday all have significant line moves also based on their performance. It bears watching these outcomes and we will see if a Monday blowout turns into a thing this season the following week.
Betting Trend – Was 66% backing N.Y. Jets, now 63%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami
NFL – (277) CLEVELAND at (278) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET CBS *New*
Technically, this is not news that New Orleans went from 7.5 to 9.5 since it happened earlier in the week, but it did not make our cut of games at the time. We are adding it now and nothing has changed as football bettors are convinced a bunch of angry have something to prove after permitting 48 points and losing to Tampa Bay. It doesn’t hurt that Cleveland is 0-8 ATS versus the NFC the last two years and they are 0-7 ATS off a home game.
Betting Trend – 83% backing New Orleans
Doug’s VPID Take – New Orleans covers
NFL – (283) NEW ENGLAND at (284) JACKSONVILLE 4:25 ET CBS
This line move caught me off guard. New England was only favored by two points over Jacksonville and they have been lowered to a Pick. While it is only two games, New England has seen two realistic spreads to start the season, not the usually juiced numbers we have grown accustomed to. Do you really bet against a team like the Pats who are 13-3 ATS on the road the last two seasons? Update – New England is back up to -1 and I agree with the overwhelming public support.
Betting Trend – Was 80% backing New England, now 81%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New England
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets ( 2-1 ATS) in order: Chargers, Texans and Rams
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (2-1) in order: Eagles/Bucs OVER, Colts/Skins OVER and Chiefs/Steelers OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 177-182-9 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 74-62-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 269-254-10 ATS