It’s another big college football Saturday and we have all the latest line moves! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (331-255-6 long term, 140-103-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
CFB – (125) FLORIDA STATE at (126) SYRACUSE 12:00 ET ESPN
As bad as Florida State has played and as bewildered as new head coach Willie Taggert appears on the sidelines, the Seminoles have been pushed from -1.5 to -3.5 point road favorites at Syracuse. The Orange are making strides and who knows about the Noles. Since last year, FSU is 1-8 ATS after one or more losses against the spread. Update – FSU has settled back to -2.5 and the total has jumped from 63 to 68. There is a lot sharp action on the home dog and Orange coach Dino Babers calling card is offense.
Betting Trend – Was 51% backing Florida State, now 45% and 83% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Syracuse and Over
CFB – (129) TROY at (130) NEBRASKA 12:00 ET BTN
Nebraska had a +170 yardage edge against Colorado but were -3 in turnovers, which explains there defeat. Football bettors are seeing this as positive and elevated the Cornhuskers four points to -11.5 against Troy. This gets fascinating with Nebraska on a 0-8 ATS home downer, while the Trojans are 13-5 ATS on the road. Update – Nebraska has backed up to -10. If Troy can run the ball, they can cover, because they will be able to throw. But look for Coach Frost to clean up a few things and the Cornhuskers cover.
Betting Trend – Was 90% backing Nebraska, now 73%
Doug’s VPID Take – Nebraska covers
CFB – (135) GEORGIA TECH at (136) PITTSBURGH 12:30 ET ESPN3
Georgia Tech had over 600 yards of offense and still lost to South Florida. Pittsburgh scored six points at home versus Penn State and surrendered 51. Put those two elements together like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and that is likely why the Yellow Jackets went from a Pick to -3.5 against the Panthers. Pitt comes in 0-6 ATS at home off a home game. Update – The line has not moved all week but support for Georgia Tech has. Pittsburgh a brutal 6-15 ATS at home under Coach Narduzzi.
Betting Trend – Was 95% backing Georgia Tech, now 65%
Doug’s VPID Take – Georgia Tech covers
CFB – (155) SOUTH FLORIDA vs. (156) ILLINOIS 3:30 ET BTN
With an uncertain quarterback situation and South Florida has a massive speed edge across the board, the less than Fighting Illini are up from +7.5 to +10 versus these Bulls in Chicago. With as good as Illinois is these days, hopefully, they didn’t give a guarantee on attendance, as this should be a smallish crowd. Though both teams have not lost, Illinois schedule has not been challenging, but, USF is only 9-17 ATS as away faves. Update -South Florida moved up a digit to -11 and Illinois has been ravaged with wide receiver injuries. Personally, 10 points sound right but will lean with the Bulls because of their speed.
Betting Trend – Was 88% backing South Florida, now 93%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean South Florida
CFB – (163) TULANE at (164) UAB 1:00 ET Facebook *New*
When the total shot up from 51 to 57, my initial inclination was to think “No Way”. When I started looking at how effective both teams run the ball and how each club stops the run, my thought process changed. There seem to be enough big plays to be had the two teams are a combined 60-2 OVER when they score and allow 28 or more points.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (169) HOUSTON at (170) TEXAS TECH 4:15 ET FOX *New*
Toss out the more recent history books as these old Southwest Conference hombres collide. Houston opened as a two-point underdog to start the week, but they have been flipped to a 1.5-point favorite at Lubbock. These teams have met seven times since 1992 and Texas Tech is 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. Talent-wise, Houston is comparable and in some cases has better players at various positions, but I still believe the Red Raiders are stronger overall and get the W.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas Tech covers
CFB – (203) ALABAMA at (204) MISSISSIPPI 7:00 ET ESPN *New*
With how Alabama has started the season, little wonder they shot up from -18 to -21 over Ole Miss. The Rebels have given the Crimson Tide a hard time occasionally, thanks to fine quarterback play and exceptional receivers. This Mississippi team has those same attributes but defensively, there are many holes to exploit. And with the Tide having a throwing QB that can make them even more of a quick strike crew, the Tide rolls!
Betting Trend – 80% backing Alabama
Doug’s VPID Take – Alabama covers
CFB – (183) ARKANSAS STATE at (184) TULSA 7:00 ET CBSSN
Not quite sure what to make of visiting Arkansas State going from a +1.5 point road dog to a 2-point favorite at Tulsa. The Red Wolves have not been afraid to take a hard September away game which explains 1-8 ATS mark this month since 2016. But is Tulsa that weak they cannot beat a good Sun Belt team at home? Update – A one-point adjustment has taken place with Arky State now at -1. I have a system that is 30-10 ATS that favors the Golden Hurricane and give the nod to them.
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Tulsa, now 55%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tulsa
CFB – (203) OHIO STATE vs. (204) TCU 8:00 ET ABC *New*
Ohio State opened at -10 and rather swiftly darted to -12 and now -13. At the same time, the total moved up from 56.5 to 59. While TCU does a much better job of recruiting and they are always a treacherous underdog, this game is in Dallas and Buckeyes fans will be everywhere. Ohio State has one of the Top 4 most talented teams in the country and that shows up in the second half. The Horned Frogs are a quality outfit, but they lose 37-21. Leans all around.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Ohio State and 61% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Ohio State and Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (7-3 ATS) in order: Georgia, USF, Miss. State, Tennessee and Houston
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (8-2) in order: Ok. St./Iowa St. OVER, Tulane/UAB OVER, Ark. St. OVER, Colo. St./Flor. OVER and UTEP/Tulane OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 177-182-9 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 73-62-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 268-254-10 ATS