Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Sept. 11


Coming off a super 12-6-1 weekend for line moves, we check out today’s baseball action and Saturday’s college football line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (328-253-6 long term, 137-101-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Thursday.

MLB – (961) ARIZONA at (962) COLORADO  8:40 ET  FSAZ, ATTRM

Just the fact that Zack Greinke (13-9, 3.08 ERA) is pitching for Arizona, that alone should be enough to keep the total at least even. But no, the total is up from 10 to 10.5 in this important NL West affair. Antonio Senzatela (4-5, 4.92) has put together a series of up and down performances and he has an ERA of almost 7 against the D-Backs. Both bullpens are a definite concern, even more than the starting pitchers, still, the Rockies are 14-4 UNDER at home after a win by eight runs or more the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB – (977) TEXAS at (978) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET FSSW, FSW

I have no idea what bettors like about the Angels tonight to move them from -130 to -150. Veteran reliever Jim Johnson (5-3, 3.81) will make the start for the Halos against Texas call-up Adrian Sampson. Here is the best reason I could find to supports the Angels; they are 33-12 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

Betting Trend – 80% backing L.A.A.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A.

CFB – (125) FLORIDA STATE at (126) SYRACUSE  12:00 ET  ESPN

As bad as Florida State has played and as bewildered as new head coach Willie Taggert appears on the sidelines, the Seminoles have been pushed from -1.5 to -3.5 point road favorites at Syracuse. The Orange are making strides and who knows about the Noles. Since last year, FSU is 1-8 ATS after one or more losses against the spread.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Florida State

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (129) TROY at (130) NEBRASKA  12:00 ET  BTN

Nebraska had a +170 yardage edge against Colorado but were -3 in turnovers, which explains there defeat. Football bettors are seeing this as positive and elevated the Cornhuskers four points to -11.5 against Troy. This gets fascinating with Nebraska on a 0-8 ATS home downer, while the Trojans are 13-5 ATS on the road.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Nebraska

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (135) GEORGIA TECH at (136) PITTSBURGH  12:30 ET  ESPN3

Georgia Tech had over 600 yards of offense and still lost to South Florida. Pittsburgh scored six points at home versus Penn State and surrendered 51. Put those two elements together like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and that is likely why the Yellow Jackets went from a Pick to -3.5 against the Panthers. Pitt comes in 0-6 ATS at home off a home game.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Georgia Tech

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (155) SOUTH FLORIDA vs. (156) ILLINOIS  3:30 ET  BTN

With an uncertain quarterback situation and South Florida has a massive speed edge across the board, the less than Fighting Illini are up from +7.5 to +10 versus these Bulls in Chicago. With as good as Illinois is these days, hopefully, they didn’t give a guarantee on attendance, as this should be a smallish crowd. Though both teams have not lost, Illinois schedule has not been challenging, but, USF is only 9-17 ATS as away faves.

Betting Trend – 88% backing South Florida

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (183) ARKANSAS STATE at (184) TULSA  7:00 ET  CBSSN

Not quite sure what to make of visiting Arkansas State going from a +1.5 point road dog to a 2-point favorite at Tulsa. The Red Wolves have not been afraid to take a hard September away game which explains 1-8 ATS mark this month since 2016. But is Tulsa that weak they cannot beat a good Sun Belt team at home?

Betting Trend – 62% backing Tulsa

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 175-180-9 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 72-62-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 264-253-10 ATS


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