Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Oct. 7

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For Week 5, we delve into the NFL lines moves for Sunday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (365-283-7 long term, 174-132-5 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.

NFL – (451) BALTIMORE at (452) CLEVELAND  1:00 ET  CBS   *New*

Through roughly a quarter of the season, the Baltimore defense is back. The Ravens are 2nd in total defense and tied for 3rd in fewest points allowed at 16.6. No question this is why the total dipped from 47 to 45.5 in this bitter battle with Cleveland. Here is the scary part, even at this lower number, this is still the highest total ever between these teams since its been the Ravens and Browns 2.0. For this confrontation, both teams have strong UNDER tendencies coming in, including Cleveland at 13-4 UNDER at home.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (459) DENVER at (460) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET  CBS

Initially, the Jersey Jets were a two-point favorite over Denver, but by Thursday, they were down to a Pick against the Broncos. While there is no doubt the Flyboys do not inspire confidence, are you wild about backing Denver who is 4-14-2 ATS since last season? Update – I really do not like this game in the least, but I’ll the Broncos because of their defense, but if Gang Green wins it is hardly a shocker.

Betting Trend – Was 92% backing Denver, now 79%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Denver

NFL – (461) ATLANTA at (462) PITTSBURGH  1:00 ET  FOX   *New*

This nonconference total shot up from 56 to 58. Both defenses have given up their fair share of points, with Atlanta at 30.5 PPG and Pittsburgh at 29. However, one key element is likely to come into play, the Falcons playing outside and on grass. At this time the weather is not supposed to be a problem, however, the Dirty Birds are 6-0 UNDER when playing outside on the real stuff of late. Pittsburgh’s defense is not what it was, but history suggests they can rise up and they are 14-3 UNDER vs. teams scoring 29 or more points a game. With the total this high, even a 28-27 offensive game would still fit an UNDER.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (467) OAKLAND at (468) L.A. CHARGERS  4:05 ET  CBS

The Chargers are 1-3 ATS so far and do not look like playoff material. Nevertheless, seeing them fall from -7.5 to -5 versus rival Oakland was an eyebrow raiser. The Raiders have not proven anything unless you count beating Cleveland at home in OT matters. Here is two aspects to ponder (and neither is good). The team that plays at the StubHub Center (does this mean literally no seat has a set price?) is 2-10 ATS at home after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. The visitor, who will be relocating soon, is 15-29 ATS after a win by three or less points. Update – No changes at -5 and the betting public is almost evenly split. I’ll take the points on principle and hope.

Betting Trend – Was 57% backing Chargers, now 51%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland

NFL – (469) ARIZONA at (470) SAN FRANCISCO  4:25 ET  FOX

Arizona might be winless, but sage NFL bettors understand the Cardinals should have won their last two contests. They were not convinced the Cards were really +5.5 point underdogs to the Niners and their influence has altered the spread to +4. No selection from me yet, but know this, winless road teams off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog are 25-6 ATS. Update – On Saturday morning the Redbirds were down to +3.5 and they will have a real shot for a first W.

Betting Trend – Was 65% backing Arizona, now 64%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

NFL – (471) MINNESOTA at (472) PHILADELPHIA  4:42 ET  FOX   *New*

Last January, these clubs played for the NFC championship and both were known for their defensive prowess. In the contest the total merely 39. Fast forward almost nine months and the opening total of 44.5 did not come close to holding up, as it pumped up to 46.5. With both off to sluggish starts, I see a back to basics conflict and Minnesota is 20-9 UNDER as an underdog.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (473) L.A. RAMS at (474) SEATTLE  4:25 ET   FOX

Who is slowing down the Rams offense, evidently not Seattle, as the total is up two points to 50.5. Here is a trio of trends to ponder. First, the Seahawks are 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents, BUT, they are also 7-0 OVER after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Los Angeles North, they are 18-7 OVER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Update – A smallish buyback to 50. The Rams offense is dynamic and Seattle’s is improving and L.A. a 34-21 winner is quite possible.

Betting Trend – Was 70% backing Over, now 67%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (5-7 ATS) in order: Rams, Panthers and Broncos

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (8-4) in order: Redskins/Saints OVER, Packers/Lions OVER and Falcons/Steelers OVER

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 196-199-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 85-75-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 291-293-11 ATS

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