Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Oct. 6

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We have another big Saturday of college football and we have it covered with line moves from coast to coast. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (365-282-7 long term, 174-131-5 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Sunday.

We have another big Saturday of college football and we have it covered with line moves from coast to coast. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (365-282-7 long term, 174-131-5 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Sunday.

CFB – (317) CLEMSON at (318) WAKE FOREST  3:30 ET  ESPN  *New*

Though it was evident early Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence was likely to play after being injured last week, football bettors did not take a strong liking to the Tigers until later in the week. Clemson is now up four points to -20 at Wake Forest. What this ACC affair is likely to come down is the energy of Clemson. If they block and overpower the Demon Deacons at the point of attack, they should win and cover. But if the Tigers are going through the motions as they did for a half last week against Syracuse, Wake will cover. Clemson wins 38-20 and barely fails to cover.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Clemson

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wake Forest

CFB – (323) SYRACUSE at (324) PITTSBURGH  12:20 ET  ACCN

Syracuse had Clemson beat and could not put them away. That has to sting somewhat and football bettors are not sure the Orange can put together the same kind of effort and lowered Syracuse from -6 to -4 at Pittsburgh. However, if you are thinking about taking the Panthers, keep in mind they are 1-11 ATS at home versus teams averaging 450 or yards a game. Update – Syracuse was as low as -3, but on Friday perked up to -3.5. There is not much to like about how Pitt plays and the Cuse get the call.

Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Syracuse, now 82%

Doug’s VPID Take – Syracuse covers

CFB – (325) SMU at (326) CENTRAL FLORIDA  7:00 ET  ESPNU  *New*      

This is one of two major totals moves that have occurred in the last few days. This AAC clash has seen the total skyrocket from 69.5 to 74.5. Because UCF is scoring 48.7 PPG and SMU allows 38 PPG, the Knights are expected to do their part towards a higher total. In the three best defenses the Mustangs have faced, the Ponies have only averaged 18.3 PPG and UCF on the season concedes 16.7 PPG. If the Knights reach 50, that would mean SMU has to score 25 and that is not expected to happen.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CFB – (327) OLD DOMINION at (328) FLORIDA ATLANTIC  5:00 ET  Stadium  *New*

The other big totals move went the other way, with this C-USA contest crumbling like Mattress Firm (if you don’t know, Google it), down six points to 63. Maybe I’m missing something on the injury front because there is no indication this will not be a high-scoring game like the past three, all which were OVER’s. It’s within reason to think this was an oddsmakers error at 69 points and this should have actually been in the 63-65 point range. Nevertheless, ODU is 9-1 OVER on the road when the total is 63 or higher.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CFB – (351) ILLINOIS at (352) RUTGERS  12:00 ET BTN

How bad is Rutgers? They are a growing home underdog to Illinois, up from +1 to +3. In truth its two rats in a hat and neither is frankly a good choice, making this selection about the lesser of two evils. This game needs time to bake before making a selection. Update – With the news regular starting QB A.J. Bush is ready to resume playing, the Illini are supposed to show more fight and are up to -5.5. We know how bad the Scarlet Knights are, but Illinois had not been this large a road fave since 2013 when they were -6 at Purdue and won by 3. The Illini are only 3-7 ATS in this role and come up short.

Betting Trend – Was 93% backing Illinois, now 88%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Rutgers

CFB – (369) CALIFORNIA at (370) ARIZONA  10:00 ET  FS1

California was a popular choice among sharps against Oregon and they were crushed by the Ducks by 18. That has not stopped a variety of different bettors of thinking the Golden Bears won’t bounce back, this time on the road. Cal is in Tucson Saturday night and has been flipped from +2.5 to -2 point favorites. Arizona is 7-1 SU over the Bears at home, but just 2-6 ATS, which means Wildcats were seldom underdogs. it’s worth noting Cal is 0-9 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less. Update – California has grown to a -2.5 point favorite. QB Khalil Tate has been robbed of his running ability for Arizona and coach Kevin Sumlin trying to make him more of a thrower is not helping either. I’ll wait to see if the Wildcats go to +3 before betting, but here I’ll side with Zona.

Betting Trend – Was 81% backing California, now 78%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

CFB – (403) UTSA at (404) RICE  7:00 ET   ESPN3

In C-USA action, UTSA opened as -1.5 point favorite, but by Tuesday morning the computer screen said they were now +2 point underdogs. After a 0-3 start, UTSA has won two straight, though they have been a backer’s nightmare at 0-5 ATS. Rice has dropped three straight to the Roadrunners, but the Owls covered two of those and is 5-1 ATS vs. UTSA. It would appear based on the betting trends, a few larger wager have been placed on the Owls. Update – This Texas state tilt is now a Pick. The Owls have been double-digit dogs since their opener. Taking a step down in class and playing at home takes to choosing Rice.

Betting Trend – Was 90% backing UTSA, now 63%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Rice covers

CFB – (407) FLORIDA STATE at (408) MIAMI-FL  3:30 ET  ABC

Despite these Sunshine State rivals being a combined 7-3 OVER, the total has collapsed from 52 to 48.5. What gives? It begins with they have played seven straight UNDER’s, so that matters. And, Miami is 8-1 UNDER after four or more consecutive straight up wins and Florida State is 32-12 UNDER in road games after having won three of their last four contests. Update – With the Seminoles nothing special on offense, the lower score could occur.

Betting Trend – Was 67% backing Under, now 54%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CFB – (409) NEBRASKA at (410) WISCONSIN  7:30 ET  BTN  *New*

Wisconsin falling four points to -17 left me befuddled. Yes, it is true the Badgers have not covered the spread when favored by more than 20 points (3 times), but come on, its Nebraska! Though one could make the case Wisconsin might be looking ahead to Michigan next week and they could start flat off a bye week, the Cornhuskers turn the ball over, take a ton of penalties and lack talent. When the line drops in this fashion on home favorites and the public is supporting them in the 80 to 85 percent range, they cover 75% of the time.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Wisconsin

Doug’s VPID Take – Wisconsin covers

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (12-12-1 ATS) in order: UCF, Wash. State, Illinois, Alabama and LSU

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (17-8) in order: Bama/Arky OVER, Iowa/Minn UNDER, Wash./UCLA  OVER, Utah/Stan. UNDER and Northw./Mich. St. UNDER

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 196-199-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 85-75-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 291-293-11 ATS

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