Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Oct. 4/5

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Let’s go over the football line moves for Thursday and Friday, plus look into those for an NFL Sunday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (363-281-7 long term, 172-130-5 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NFL – (301) INDIANAPOLIS at (302) NEW ENGLAND  8:20 ET  FOX

Count me among those surprised to see the total slide from 53 to 50. The New England defense still has problems and nobody should be surprised if Indianapolis scores 20 points. The Colts defense is allowing 25 PPG, thus, it’s not a stretch to think on a short week with Indy on the road, the Patriots will not score at least 31 points. The total is headed in the wrong direction.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CFB – (303) TULSA at (304) HOUSTON  8:00 ET  ESPN  (side and total)

Tulsa has an excellent recent history of covering spreads in a variety of situations, thus, off the top, it is a bit perplexing to the Golden Hurricane climb from +15.5 to +18. One major difference, those previous Tulsa teams had not committed 13 turnovers in four games. If Tulsa maintains there average, that could mean 10 to 14 points for Houston, meaning they only have to be one score better the rest of the game. The total rising from 67.5 to 70 also caught my attention and if the Cougars play to their defensive skill level, Tulsa will not score enough to make this an Over play.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Houston, 72% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Houston and Under

CFB – Friday – (307) MIDDLE TENNESSEE at (308) MARSHALL  7:30 ET CBBSN

Marshall has the stronger team in their matchup with Middle Tennessee, but because they have turned the rock over 11 times in the last three outings, they have failed to beat the spread in that stretch. This is the main ingredient why football bettors have lowered the Thundering Herd from -7 to -4.5. In a C-USA clash with similar offenses, because Marshall is at home and has a decisive edge on defense, they drew my support.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Marshall

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Marshall

NFL – (459) DENVER at (460) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET  CBS

Initially, the Jersey Jets were a two-point favorite over Denver, but by Thursday, they were down to a Pick against the Broncos. While there is no doubt the Flyboys do not inspire confidence, are you wild about backing Denver who is 4-14-2 ATS since last season?

Betting Trend – 92% backing Denver

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (467) OAKLAND at (468) L.A. CHARGERS  4:05 ET  CBS

The Chargers are 1-3 ATS so far and do not look like playoff material. Nevertheless, seeing them fall from -7.5 to -5 versus rival Oakland was an eyebrow raiser. The Raiders have not proven anything unless you count beating Cleveland at home in OT matters. Here are two aspects to ponder (and neither is good). The team that plays at the StubHub Center (does this mean literally no seat has a set price?) is 2-10 ATS at home after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. The visitor, who will be relocating soon, is 15-29 ATS after a win by three or less points.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Chargers

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (469) ARIZONA at (470) SAN FRANCISCO  4:25 ET  FOX 

Arizona might be winless, but sage NFL bettors understand the Cardinals should have won their last two contests. They were not convinced the Cards were really +5.5 point underdogs to the Niners and their influence has altered the spread to +4. No selection from me yet, but know this, winless road teams off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog are 25-6 ATS.

Betting Trend – 65% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (473) L.A. RAMS at (474) SEATTLE  4:25 ET   FOX

Who is slowing down the Rams offense, evidently not Seattle, as the total is up two points to 50.5? Here is a trio of trends to ponder. First, the Seahawks are 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents, BUT, they are also 7-0 OVER after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Los Angeles North, they are 18-7 OVER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 195-198-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 85-74-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 291-290-11 ATS

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