Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Oct. 25/26

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For line moves it’s all about football today and for upcoming games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (388-304-10 in 2018, 9-4 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB – (105) TOLEDO at (106) WESTERN MICH.  7:00 ET  ESPN2

This MAC matchup has two teams going in opposite directions. Western Michigan has won six in a row (3-3 ATS), while Toledo has dropped three of four and not covered the spread in that time span. In turn, the Broncos have been beefed up from -4 to -6 over the Rockets. Toledo’s defense is the problem give up 5.8 PPG more than their opponents have scored per game and 77 more YPG than they have gained. Western Mich. gets the call at home.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Western Michigan

Doug’s VPID Take – Western Michigan covers

CFB – (113) BAYLOR at (114) WEST VIRGINIA  7:00 ET  FS1

Major totals shift in this Big 12 battle (like that’s news in this conference), as the total blew up from 63 to 67.5. Both teams should be anxious to get back to action after a bye. Each offense performed poorly in their last outing, scoring 17 or fewer points and will out to make amends. From this perspective, the deciding factor will be the West Virginia defense, which started strongly but has fallen off in conference play. I’m not sure the Mountaineers will fix their issues and they are 9-2 OVER when the total is 63 or higher.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CFB – Friday (121) WYOMING at (122) COLORADO STATE  10:00 ET  CBSSN

The total sinking from 49 to 45.5 has mostly to do with Wyoming’s outstanding defense and pathetic offense. The Cowboys hold opposing foes to 9.2 PPG below their normal scoring averaging. They are also next to last in scoring in college football at 15.5 PPG. I’m of the opinion the opening total was incorrect and the adjustment is accurate, which evaporated the value. I’ll still take the UNDER with Wyoming 10-2 UNDER against conference opponents and Colorado State 7-0 UNDER after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (253) CLEVELAND at (254) PITTSBURGH  1:00 ET  CBS

The total is in this AFC North confrontation is down two points from opening, sitting now at 49. That still leaves this as the highest-ever total between these combatants and it is a full eight points higher than there Week 1 contest when it closed at 41. Both teams have leans towards a lower score. I promise to have an answer for you on Sunday.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (255) DENVER at (258) KANSAS CITY  1:00 ET  CBS 

Didn’t see this coming, the total in this AFC West rematch is has fallen from 55.5 to 53.5. Perception is the driving force with bettor’s thinking back to their Monday meeting when Kansas City came from behind to win 27-23. With the Chiefs favored by 10 and the total adjusted, oddsmakers are essentially forecasting a 32-21 final score. In truth, that sounds about right. For the most part, past trends are useless about K.C. this season, meaning execution and turnovers will be the deciding factor.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (265) BALTIMORE at (266) CAROLINA 1:00 ET  CBS

This caught me a bit off guard, as Carolina was flipped from -1 to +2 point home underdogs. In theory, I agree Baltimore should be the better team, but how do you overlook the fact of the Ravens are 4-3? Baltimore has not been able to win when they don’t play their best. Conversely, Carolina has. They were dreadful at Philadelphia last week in trailing 17-0 but turned it on when it counted and won 21-17. The word for that is gumption and the Panthers are 18-7 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375 more yards a game.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (267) INDIANAPOLIS at (268) OAKLAND  1:00 ET  CBS

The Colts being ridden from -1.5 to -3 at Oak-Town is not so much a play on Indianapolis, but rather against the Raiders. Oakland is a mess and Jon Gruden might have a long term view, but the older players want to win today, not in three years. Coach Frank Reich of the Colts does not have a great deal of talent on his roster, but they play hard all four quarters. It is hard to overlook Oakland is 10-23 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Indianapolis

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 212-215-12 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 91-82-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 315-314-14 ATS

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