In what was the lowest amount of line moves in the NFL as far back as I can remember, this has led to a very short card Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (379-300-10 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week
NFL – (453) NEW ENGLAND at (454) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS *New*
As the week progressed, the total has come down from 50 to 48.5 points. There are plenty of football bettors that believe the Bears defense can slow down a smoking hot New England offense. In addition, though Mitchell Tribusky has played better the last couple weeks, nobody is certain is he’s on his way to becoming a real good quarterback yet. With the Pats 11-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 45.5 or higher the last three seasons, let’s back the lower score.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (455) CLEVELAND at (456) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX *New*
We know Baker Mayfield has the skill to throw the pigskin around and he should be thrilled to go against the NFL’s worst pass defense in Tampa Bay. With that in mind, the total has climbed two points to 51.5. I’ll go along with it and you need to know when the total is 49.5 or higher and the home team is allowing 360 or more YPG, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games, the OVER is 27-6 the last 10 years.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (461) BUFFALO at (462) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
For a second time this season, when it was announced that Josh Allen would not start for Buffalo, the Bills actually went down as underdogs which in some ways tells you something about Allen. That means Nathan Peterman will get the start, whoops, breaking news, Derek Anderson, who was signed last Wednesday, will start for Buffalo. The Bills have tumbled from +9 to +7.5 and coach Sean McDermott expressed confidence in Anderson, as they were together at Carolina. More on this over the weekend, once I stop laughing. Update – The Colts are down to -7, but Anderson has hardly been there and while he knows the offense, will this really lead to touchdowns? Take Indy now that they are off the hook.
Betting Trend – Was 80% backing Indianapolis, now 82%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indianapolis
NFL – (467) HOUSTON at (468) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
This AFC South battle has a falling total from 44 to 42. You will not find either team listed as – NFL Offensive Juggernaut – with Houston at 22.5 PPG and Jacksonville at 18.2 PPG.
Should we be taking note the Jaguars are 11-2 OVER at home after scoring nine points or less in the last game? Update – This total fell again to 41 points. Put me down for the bigger number with the Texans 13-4 OVER off two or more consecutive Under’s.
Betting Trend – Was 55% backing Over, now 51%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (7-13 ATS) in order: Chargers, Colts and Chiefs
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (13-6-1) in order: Bengals/Chiefs OVER, Cowboys/Redskins OVER and Browns/Bucs OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 208-211-12 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 87-81-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 310-306-14 ATS