Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Oct. 2

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After an 11-6-1 free picks weekend on line moves, we jump ahead to a week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (362-281-7 long term, 171-130-5 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Thursday

MLB – (937) COLORADO at (938) CHIC. CUBS  8:05 ET  ESPN

The line on this wild card clash has seen the Cubs climb from -125 to -140 over Colorado. The betting public is with the Cubs but most of the sharp bettors are on the Rockies, who frankly are playing better baseball the last month. As much as I like Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA), the Cubs bullpen is missing it’s two best relievers and they have scored the fewest runs of any playoff team the last month. Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85) and Colorado play Milwaukee next.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado

CFB – (323) SYRACUSE at (324) PITTSBURGH  12:20 ET  ACCN

Syracuse had Clemson beat and could not put them away. That has to sting somewhat and football bettors are not sure the Orange can put together the same kind of effort and lowered Syracuse from -6 to -4 at Pittsburgh. However, if you are thinking about taking the Panthers, keep in mind they are 1-11 ATS at home versus teams averaging 450 or yards a game.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Syracuse

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Saturday

CFB – (351) ILLINOIS at (352) RUTGERS  12:00 ET BTN

How bad is Rutgers? They are a growing home underdog to Illinois, up from +1 to +3. In truth its two rats in a hat and neither is frankly a good choice, making this selection about the lesser of two evils. This game needs time to bake before making a selection.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Illinois

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Saturday

CFB – (369) CALIFORNIA at (370) ARIZONA  10:00 ET  FS1 

California was a popular choice among sharps against Oregon and they were crushed by the Ducks by 18. That has not stopped a variety of different bettors of thinking the Golden Bears won’t bounce back, this time on the road. Cal is in Tucson Saturday night and has been flipped from +2.5 to -2 point favorites. Arizona is 7-1 SU over the Bears at home, but just 2-6 ATS, which means Wildcats were seldom underdogs. it’s worth noting Cal is 0-9 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.

Betting Trend – 81% backing California

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Saturday

CFB – (403) UTSA at (404) RICE  7:00 ET   ESPN3

In C-USA action, UTSA opened as -1.5 point favorite, but by Tuesday morning the computer screen said they were now +2 point underdogs. After a 0-3 start, UTSA has won two straight, though they have been a backer’s nightmare at 0-5 ATS. Rice has dropped three straight to the Roadrunners, but the Owls covered two of those and is 5-1 ATS vs. UTSA. It would appear based on the betting trends, a few larger wager have been placed on the Owls.

Betting Trend – 90% backing UTSA

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Saturday

CFB – (407) FLORIDA STATE at (408) MIAMI-FL  3:30 ET  ABC

Despite these Sunshine State rivals being a combined 7-3 OVER, the total has collapsed from 52 to 48.5. What gives? It begins with they have played seven straight UNDER’s, so that matters. And, Miami is 8-1 UNDER after four or more consecutive straight up wins and Florida State is 32-12 UNDER in road games after having won three of their last four contests.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Saturday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 195-197-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 85-74-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 291-289-11 ATS

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