Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Oct. 11-12

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This week there are more early NFL line moves there have been all season and have nearly all of them. Plus, we have those in college football for Thursday and Friday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (374-291-9 long term, 183-140-7 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

NFL – (103) PHILADELPHIA at (104) N.Y. GIANTS  8:20 ET  FOX

Philadelphia opened at -3, went to -2.5 on Wednesday and they are now down to -1.5 or -1 depending on the sportsbooks. The Eagles biggest problem is offense, not defense and they can generate a lot of pressure on Eli Manning. At this price, with my money, Philly is too good to pass up.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia

CFB – (105) TEXAS TECH at (106) TCU   7:30 ET  ESPN

The total has fallen from 61 to 58.5 mostly because of the quarterback situations. The Texas Tech starter Alan Bowman is out, but his backup Jett Duffey played well last week when forced in. TCU starter Shawn Robinson has been upgraded to ‘probable’, but no word on if he starts or if he really plays. Both teams are turning the ball over at a ridiculous pace and that can help or hurt the total. I’ll forecast enough points so the total climbs past 60 for an OVER play.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CFB – (111) ARIZONA at (112) UTAH   10:00 ET  ESPN

In five the last six confrontations between these Pac-12 South rivals, the total have been 60 or higher. This year it opened at 53 and has crumbled to 50.5. The average total score in that span has been 58.1 total points. I know Khalil Tate has a bum ankle, but why isn’t Kevin Sumlin get him into open space where he can just run straight ahead like last year? Let’s back history and the fact Arizona is 22-9 OVER after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better and Utah is 18-6 OVER at home off a conference win by 10 points or more.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (253) L.A. CHARGERS at (254) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  CBS

All those years of low draft picks it starting to pay off for Cleveland and there defense is much improved. The Browns have held four of five foes to 21 or fewer points, which leads to this AFC affair crashing two digits to 44.5. This is the fourth consecutive year these teams are meeting and the last two have been UNDER’s. Will that continue?

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (255) CHICAGO at (256) MIAMI  1:09 ET  FOX

Miami has proven to be a fraud off two straight losses after a 3-0 start and Chicago is being talked about as a possible NFC North champ if they keep playing defense the way they are and the offense improves. The Bears have clawed from -2 to -3.5 and a couple books are -4 in their encounter with the Fins. Maybe Chicago is this good, just be aware they are 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more YPP in their previous game.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (257) CAROLINA at (258) WASHINGTON  1:00 ET  FOX

We have the old switcheroo, with the Redskins going from +1 to -1 point favorites against Carolina. From a matchup standpoint, the Panthers are much better for Washington than New Orleans, being more physical than finesse. Here is a question to ask yourself, are you really comfortable backing the Skins since they are 43-70 ATS as a home favorite over the years?

Betting Trend – 81% backing Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (261) PITTSBURGH at (262) CINCINNATI  1:00 ET  CBS

Even with total dropping two points to 52.5, this is the highest total on this matchup I could find going back to 1981. (Because of how football was played before then, little chance it was ever higher.) This confrontation has two smoking hot offenses, against two ordinary at best defenses. This should be easy right? So why did the total sink?

Betting Trend – 67% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (273) BALTIMORE at (274) TENNESSEE  4:25 ET  CBS

Two AFC teams coming off extremely disappointing defeats as road favorites. Both will be in the mood for redemption, but the influence money is coming on Baltimore, who was lifted from a Pick to -3, below settling at -2.5. The Ravens have the better squad, but Tennessee is 12-3 ATS after one or more setbacks.

Betting Trend – 50-50

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 202-206-11 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 87-77-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 301-300-13 ATS

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