It’s the halfway point of the NFL season and we have all the latest line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (402-315-10 in 2018, 23-15 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NFL – (451) DETROIT at (452) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS *New*
One would have to think Stephen Diggs being “questionable” plays a part into the total sliding from 51 to 49. But that is not the only reason as Detroit trading leading receiver Golden Tate does not make the Lions offense better. Also, the Vikings are 18-7 UNDER against division foes and 13-4 UNDER after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (453) KANSAS CITY at (454) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Here is an unusual sight, a game involving Kansas City with a sinking total. That’s right, this AFC affair has seen the total go from 53 to 51. What to expect from Cleveland is anyone’s guess, thus, we will stay in fact-based information. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and the Browns in their past three contents have allowed 32.3 PPG, making it a real possibility K.C. will score somewhere in that range. That leaves Cleveland to scoring close to 20 points, which is iffy since they are at 16.7 PPG in their last four outings. Update – A buyback on the total to 52 points. This has the makings of the Kansas City win 34-20, which makes this an OVER play.
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Over, now 68%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (459) N.Y. JETS at (460) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
There is a consensus among football bettors that in this AFC encounter, points will not be plentiful and the total has crumbled from 45.5 to 43.5. This is in spite of the Miami on a 3-0 OVER and New York at 4-1 OVER. However, the Jets Sam Darnold has seen almost every productive offensive playmaker get injured around him and Miami has Brock Osweiler. In the first meeting, the Dolphins won 20-12 and the total closed at 43. Update – We have gone one tick further down to 43. Just not sure there is enough offense on either side. With these two teams, this could for no reason also be a 31-28 outcome. (You’ve been warned.)
Betting Trend – Was 60% backing Under, now 64%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (463) CHICAGO at (464) BUFFALO 1:00 ET FOX
Buffalo’s quarterback situation continues to deteriorate with Derek Anderson unlikely to play being in concussion protocol and having to move Nathan Peterman back into the starting role for the Bills. In order to have another QB, Buffalo signed journeyman and warm body Matt Barkley this week, which places the Bills in a real bind against a Chicago defense that is ranked 7th. Buffalo has gone from +8 to +10. Update – The -10 on the Bears has held and there is little reason to think it won’t hold up.
Betting Trend – Was 82% backing Chicago, now 80%
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago covers
NFL – (467) L.A. CHARGERS at (468) SEATTLE 4:05 ET CBS *New*
After sitting quietly all week, the Chargers went from +1.5 to -1 point road favorites. L.A. South does have the better offense, but not the better defense. For trend players, it’s worth noting the Bolts lose they edge of having a 25-13 ATS record as a road underdog and Seattle flips from being a recent 10-13 ATS home favorite to a 14-5 ATS home underdog. The Seahawks new running game can expose and so-so Chargers run defense and they take this nonconference clash.
Betting Trend – 52% backing L.A. Chargers
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
NFL – (469) L.A. RAMS at (470) NEW ORLEANS 4:25 ET FOX *New*
This huge NFC matchup opened as a Pick, but late in the week the Rams surged to a -2.5 point road favorite. Are the Rams really better than New Orleans at this moment? L.A. North can rush the passer but Drew Bledsoe gets rid of the ball in a hurry. Under Sean Peyton, the Saints are 15-5 ATS playing against a team with a win percentage of 75% or higher. The Rams fall to 8-1.
Betting Trend – 53% backing New Orleans
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New Orleans
NFL – Monday – (473) TENNESSEE at (474) DALLAS 8:15 ET ESPN
For this Monday-nighter Dallas was sent out at -5 and later bet up to -6.5. Tennessee hits Big D on the three-game losing streak which plays into the thinking. Looking at the stats however, the separation seems less. The Titans are third in points allowed (18.1 PPG) and the Cowboys are second (17.6). Neither offense is productive, but maybe a case could be made for Dallas as they score 20 PPG compared to Tennessee at a mere 15.1 PPG. Update – The spread has gone back to square one at 5. I’m just not sure there is enough difference between these teams to justify more than a three-point spread.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Dallas, now 57%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tennessee
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (11-13 ATS) in order: Chiefs, Steelers and Vikings
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (15-8-1) in order: Packers/Patriots OVER, Rams/Saints OVER and Chargers/Seahawks OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 222-223-12 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 95-84-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 325-325-14 ATS