Because of the volume of college basketball games starting this Saturday, for line moves, this will be our final report for the week going forward. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (440-353-12 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
CFB – (303) NORTHERN ILL. vs. (304) BUFFALO U. 7:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
In the MAC title tilt, the total has risen from 49.5 to 51 points. If you are considering the side, that would seem to favor Buffalo since they are the higher scoring team. If that is true the Over makes more sense. However, every single one of my numbers has a lower total and Northern Illinois has the defense and lack of offense to keep the score low and make this an UNDER play.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (307) UAB at (308) MID. TENNESSEE 1:30 ET CBSSN *New* (side and total)
I was curious if this line would move in this C-USA title game and it has, with UAB down from +3 to +1.5. At the same time, the total followed from 47 to 44.5. This is a rematch from last week at the same location and football bettors are thinking the Blazers are seeking revenge and did want to play there hand. However, the Blazers have lost two straight and their offensive line has been ravaged by injuries and their top running back is beat up. It seems UAB’s best path to a win is defense, thus, the UNDER makes the most sense. Though I would really like to play the Blazers because of what they have done after the football program was shuttered, I don’t see enough offense and think the Blue Raiders cover and become champions.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over and 52% on Middle Tennessee
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, Lean Middle Tennessee
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CFB – (309) MEMPHIS at (310) CENT. FLORIDA 3:30 ET ABC (side and total)
Evidently, oddsmakers and college football bettors were not on the same page about UCF losing QB McKenzie Milton. They made the Knights a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 70 and bettors have taken those numbers down to -3 and 64. In the game at Memphis, UCF escaped 31-30 and remains unbeaten and victory should get them back to a Super Six bowl. The Tigers are 0-6 SU and ATS at Orlando. Update – Both lines have held steady all week. If this game was in Memphis, I would probably back the Tigers, but UCF players really love there fallen quarterback and playing at home will be the difference. UCF 30-24, making this an UNDER play also.
Betting Trend – Was 57% backing UCF, now 54% and 90% on Under, now 55%
Doug’s VPID Take – UCF covers and Under
CFB – (315) GEORGIA vs. (316) ALABAMA 4:00 ET CBS
As good as Georgia looks, the betting public cannot get enough of Alabama in a big game and rolled the Crimson Tide from -10.5 to -13.5. For the contrarian thinker, here is something to chew on for a few days. Neutral field underdogs like the Bulldogs averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games, are 23-4 ATS. Update – A modest buyback on Georgia to +13. Too much offense for Alabama and they can pressure QB Jake Fromm and at least slow the Georgia running game.
Betting Trend – Was 78% backing Alabama, now 73%
Doug’s VPID Take – Alabama covers
CFB – (317) FRESNO STATE at (318) BOISE STATE 7:45 ET ESPN
This is pretty fascinating! Fresno State is 9-2 UNDER this season and that includes 6-0 UNDER on the road. Boise State is 6-5 UNDER and is on a 4-0 UNDER run, yet, the total went from 49.5 to 53.5. Plus, these teams have played four UNDER’s in a row. Who knows what? Update – The total has backed up a point to 52.5, but the even bigger news is Fresno State has gone from +2.5 to a Pick or -1 depending on the sportsbook. I’m siding with the two latest line moves in the Mountain West.
Betting Trend – Was 60% backing Under, now 94%, 67% on Boise State
Doug’s VPID Take – Fresno State and Under
CFB – (319) PITTSBURGH vs. (320) CLEMSON 8:00 ET ABC (side and total)
The ACC championship looks like a blowout and Clemson had been shoved three points higher to -27.5. At the same time, the Tigers are also supposed to limit Pittsburgh’s offense presumably as the total has fallen from 55.5 to 52.5. The Panthers upset Clemson 43-42 as 21.5 point road underdogs two years ago, but for the Tigers, the stakes are much higher for what lies ahead. Update – Clemson remains a very strong favorite and 40 percent of the books checked have moved Clemson to -28 and the total back to 53. The Tigers gave up 35 points and 600 yards last week, so look for the defense to be stirred up to make a statement and they cover this chalk-laden number and make it an UNDER.
Betting Trend – Was 77% backing Clemson, now 76% and 66% on Over, now 82%
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Clemson and Under
CFB – (321) NORTHWESTERN vs. (322) OHIO STATE 8:00 ET FOX *New*
Early in the week, Ohio State went from -12.5 to -13 and on Friday made the leap to -14.5. I think we can all agree the Buckeyes played a near-perfect offensive game last week and are probably not going to be as jacked up for this contest even with at least a Rose Bowl bid on the line. And while I respect coach Pat Fitzgerald’s awesome record as an underdog, there secondary has not seen a passing attack like this. With Urban Meyer having never been afraid to run up some more points to enhance his team’s position, Ohio State gets the call.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Ohio State
Doug’s VPID Take – Ohio State covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (31-32-2 ATS) in order: Washington, Buffalo and Ohio State
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (37-27-1) in order: Fresno St./Boise St.UNDER, Pitt./Clemson OVER and NIU/Buff. OVER
NFL – (355) CAROLINA at (356) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX
In this NFC South clash, the total is down two points to 54 which is rather compelling. The reason for that comment is we know Tampa Bay can score (26.7 PPG) and they also give up a large volume of points (30.7 PPG). The Carolina defense has gone into hibernation in their last three contests permitting 102 total points. Something to think about. Update – A slight uptick to 54.5. I’m just seeing no defense on either side of the ball and two offense that can take advantage of what they see, backing the OVER.
Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Under, now 54%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (357) BALTIMORE at (358) ATLANTA 1:00 ET CBS
Baltimore was sent out as a three-point favorite. Was that because the sportsbooks thought Joe Flacco was coming back, they like what they have seen from Lamar Jackson at QB or Atlanta’s three-game losing streak looks like the real deal? Whatever it was, bettors totally were convinced the number was wrong and shoved the Falcons to a one-point favorite. Update – The wagering public was perfectly pleased with Atlanta as a favorite and left them there. Here are the questions, have the Falcons packed it in? Can Jackson perform on the road? I’ll side with the Dirty Birds only because they are home.
Betting Trend – Was 67% backing Atlanta, now 63%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
NFL – (359) CLEVELAND at (360) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
The opening line at most sportsbooks was Houston at -7 and even after their beat down of Tennessee, by late Tuesday morning the Texans were down to -6 and on Thursday lowered again to -5.5. That’s right, a team riding an eight-game winning streak, that gets three points for being at home is thought to be less than a field goal better than Cleveland. Isn’t that something! Update – No movement at 5.5 and while this number is in no man’s land, I like the Texans as the Brownies are 13-26 ATS as underdogs.
Betting Trend – Was 76% backing Houston, now 79%
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston covers
NFL – (361) BUFFALO at (362) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
Miami has more bad trends at home than Apple’s stock at the moment and the Dolphins have dipped from -6 to -4 against rival Buffalo. Among the many unsavory angles for the Fins is a 16-36 ATS record after a two-game road trip and 3-13 ATS mark at home versus offensive teams averaging 4.75 or fewer yards a play. Update – Miami continues to drift downward and at this time is at -3.5. This contest could be at 3 by game time is very possible, which is why I grabbed Buffalo at +4.
Betting Trend – Was 56% backing Buffalo, now 54%
Doug’s VPID Take – Buffalo covers
NFL – (365) DENVER at (366) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET CBS *New* (side and total)
With Cincinnati’s offense in tatters and Denver really coming to life, the Broncos have been ridden from -3.5 to -5. No question this sure feels like a lot of points for a Denver team who has played almost every tough, but finally figured out how to win. Nonetheless, with the Bengals defense one of the worst in the NFL, the Broncos should score and generate a couple of turnovers. The total has also blossomed and that seems to be a reflection of Denver’s ability to score and they are 15-5 OVER in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Denver and 74% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Denver and Over
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (17-18-1 ATS) in order: Chiefs, Rams and Seahawks
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (17-17-2) in order: Browns/Texans OVER, Ravens/Falcons OVER and Jets/Titans OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 247-248-14 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 110-96-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 364-364-16 ATS