Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Nov. 28th

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Today for line moves we have one game in the NBA and one in college basketball and a look ahead to Championship Week in college football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (437-352-12 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (719) PHOENIX at (720) L.A. CLIPPERS 10:35 ET  FSAZ, PRIME

The biggest line move in the NBA today is the total in this Pacific Division contest. Sportsbooks sent this out at 225.5 and it has grown to 229.5. Both teams are in the bottom third of the league in points allowed, but the Clippers are actually No.1 in field goal percentage allowed. I was teetering on going lower but found out that Phoenix is 13-3 OVER in road games when playing on back-to-back days the last three seasons and decided to go that direction. 

Betting Trend – 59% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CBB – (259) NORTHERN ILL. at (260) UW-GREEN BAY  8:00 ET   ESPN+

We have a flipper in the upper Midwest as the NIU Huskies went from two-point dogs to -1.5 point favorites at Green Bay. Northern Illinois is shooting over 51 percent thus far, making them the better shooting team and they are also better on the glass. The concern has to be the Phoenix are on a 4-0 ATS move and catching points. NIU does have five starters back, but Green Bay is 9-2 ATS versus teams scoring 77+ points a game.

Betting Trend – 83% backing Northern Illinois

Doug’s VPID Take  Lean UW-Green Bay

CFB – (309) MEMPHIS at (310) CENT. FLORIDA  3:30 ET  ABC  (side and total)

 Evidently, oddsmakers and college football bettors were not on the same page about UCF losing QB McKenzie Milton. They made the Knights a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 70 and bettors have taken those numbers down to -3 and 64. In the game at Memphis, UCF escaped 31-30 and remains unbeaten and victory should get them back to a Super Six bowl. The Tigers are 0-6 SU and ATS at Orlando.

Betting Trend – 57% backing UCFand 90% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (315) GEORGIA vs. (316) ALABAMA 4:00 ET  CBS

 As good as Georgia looks, the betting public cannot get enough of Alabama in a big game and rolled the Crimson Tide from -10.5 to -13.5. For the contrarian thinker, here is something to chew on for a few days. Neutral field underdogs like the Bulldogs averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games, are 23-4 ATS.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Alabama

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (317) FRESNO STATE at (318) BOISE STATE  7:45 ET  ESPN

 This is pretty fascinating! Fresno State is 9-2 UNDER this season and that includes 6-0 UNDER on the road. Boise State is 6-5 UNDER and is on a 4-0 UNDER run, yet, the total went from 49.5 to 53.5. Plus, these teams have played four UNDER’s in a row. Who knows what?

Betting Trend – 60% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take  Coming Friday

CFB – (319) PITTSBURGH vs. (320) CLEMSON  8:00 ET  ABC  (side and total)

The ACC championship looks like a blowout and Clemson had been shoved three points higher to -27.5. At the same time, the Tigers are also supposed to limit Pittsburgh’s offense presumably as the total has fallen from 55.5 to 52.5. The Panthers upset Clemson 43-42 as 21.5 point road underdogs two years ago, but for the Tigers, the stakes are much higher for what lies ahead.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Clemson

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 245-248-14 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 110-94-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 363-361-16 ATS

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