Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Nov. 29


It’s Thursday and we have the latest line moves today and are looking ahead to the NFL for Week 13. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (438-353-12 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NFL – (301) NEW ORLEANS at (302) DALLAS 8:20 ET  FOX

The total in this Thursday tilt has slid from 54.4 to 51.5. Does that suggest Dallas has a chance to cover in a lower scoring game? I actually agree with this line movement and when the total is 49.5 or higher and a team like the Cowboys just played a game where they forced three or more turnovers, going against an opponent after a game where they forced four or more turnovers, the UNDER is 25-6.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (505) INDIANA at (506) L.A. LAKERS  10:35 ET  FSIN, TWSN

The total on this encounter jumped from 215.5 to 219. Among the reasons is the Lakers are having troubles guarding a basic pick and roll against an experienced guard and center. It has been either player is scoring or when the Lakers go to double team, they are kicking the ball out to an open shooter. Indiana has center Myles Turner and point guard Darren Collison to run this. However, L.A. has point guard injuries and the Pacers are 17-5 UNDER versus teams scoring 110+ points or game.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under


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NFL – (355) CAROLINA at (356) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET  FOX

In this NFC South clash, the total is down two points to 54 which is rather compelling. The reason for that comment is we know Tampa Bay can score (26.7 PPG) and they also give up a large volume of points (30.7 PPG). The Carolina defense has gone into hibernation in their last three contests permitting 102 total points. Something to think about.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (357) BALTIMORE at (358) ATLANTA  1:00 ET  CBS

Baltimore was sent out as three-point favorite. Was that because the sportsbooks thought Joe Flacco was coming back, they like what they have seen from Lamar Jackson at QB or Atlanta’s three-game losing streak looks like the real deal? Whatever it was, bettors totally were convinced the number was wrong and shoved the Falcons to a one-point favorite.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (359) CLEVELAND at (360) HOUSTON  1:00 ET  CBS

The opening line at most sportsbooks was Houston at -7 and even after their beat down of Tennessee, by late Tuesday morning the Texans were down to -6 and on Thursday lowered again to -5.5. That’s right, a team riding an eight-game winning streak, that gets three points for being at home is thought to be less than a field goal better than Cleveland. Isn’t that something!

Betting Trend – 76% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (361) BUFFALO at (362) MIAMI  1:00 ET  CBS

Miami has more bad trends at home than Apple’s stock at the moment and the Dolphins have dipped from -6 to -4 against rival Buffalo. Among the many unsavory angles for the Fins is a 16-36 ATS record after a two-game road trip and 3-13 ATS mark at home versus offensive teams averaging 4.75 or fewer yards a play.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Buffalo

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 246-248-14 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 110-95-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 363-363-16 ATS


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