Besides the line moves below, we the Dolphins/Colts and Patriots/Jets games had line movement, but they were both attributed to quarterback changes for Miami and New York. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (433-348-11 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week
NFL – (257) N.Y. GIANTS at (258) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET FOX
How far gone is last year’s Super Bowl to football bettors? Philadelphia has tumbled from -5.5 to -4 at home against the rival Giants, who two weeks ago was considered among the three worst teams in the NFL. This is completely understandable because the Eagles cannot stop the run or pass and their running game has evaporated. With Philly just 8-17-1 ATS as division home favorite and New York has big play potential, the G-Men get the call.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
NFL – (259) CLEVELAND at (260) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET CBS
Other than a few Bengals fans, does anyone else remember Cincinnati started 4-1? The Bengals defense was not good to begin and once injuries again caused the offense to suffer, the Bengals started losing. The focus on this battle of Ohio is the total, which has slid from 48 to 46.5. Though both offenses are hardly dynamic, the defenses are not impregnable. With the Browns 11-3 OVER in AFC road games and 9-1 OVER in away outings versus foes permitting 5.65 yards or more yards a play, we will back the higher score.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (267) ARIZONA at (268) L.A. CHARGERS 4:05 ET FOX
Even with RB Melvin Gordon listed as ‘questionable’, bettors are still backing the Chargers over Arizona and pushed them from -11.5 to -13. Last week, the Cardinals were the first team in NFL history to have lead with under two minutes, receive two punts and still lose the game. It’s either the Bolts or pass from this seat.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Los Angeles South
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A. South
NFL – Monday – (273) TENNESSEE at (274) HOUSTON 8:15 ET ESPN
Titans coach Mike Vrabel expects Marcus Mariota to start on Monday after going thru a few practices this week after suffering a ‘stinger’ last week to his elbow. That has not altered the opinion of those betting football, as the total went down on Tuesday from 43 to 41.5. Neither of these AFC South teams has potent offenses despite some excellent playmakers and they are both in the Top 5 in scoring defense. Have to agree the lower score appears accurate and Tennessee is 7-1 UNDER vs. AFC competition this season.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (15-17-1 ATS) in order: Patriots, Chargers, Colts
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (17-15-1) in order: Giants/Eagles OVER, Packers/Vikings OVER and Patriots/Jets OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 243-244-13 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 108-94-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 358-358-15 ATS