Time to attack the NFL line moves for Sunday with 3 new ones plus updates on the those from Thursday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (421-339-11 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NFL – (453) DALLAS at (454) ATLANTA 1:00 ET FOX *New*
If you were or have been thinking about betting Atlanta, the total rising two points to 49.5 would seem to be good news. The Falcons defense is very suspect, thus, the more points the better with how they play. But is the higher total correct? I’m going the opposite direction, with Dallas 15-6 UNDER in road games and the Dirty Birds 8-1 UNDER having won three out of their last four games.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (459) PHILADELPHIA at (460) NEW ORLEANS 4:25 ET FOX
What happens when you mix Carson Wentz against the NFL’s No. 31 pass defense and Drew Brees versus a depleted Philadelphia secondary? Points, and that is why the total has climbed from 54 to 56. Is this justified? If the Eagles being 8-0 OVER in road games versus teams allowing 350 or more yards a game it is. Update – In spite an overwhelming majority of tickets written on the OVER, the total has stood still since Thursday. I can see plenty of big plays getting this to an OVER.
Betting Trend – Was 96% backing Over, now 95%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
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NFL – (461) TENNESSEE at (462) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
Based on how Tennessee has played the last two weeks, you knew Indianapolis at -3 was not going to hold and it has not. The Titans are down to +1. What will win out, the more physical football team in Tennessee on both sides of the ball or the Colts out of nowhere outstanding looking young offensive line, who is protecting Andrew Luck like he has not been in years? Update – A modest buyback on Indy to -1.5, with the latest news having the total climb from 48 to 50.5. A higher score would seem to favor the Colts with how their offense is playing. Here is what I’m doing, give me the Titans because I believe they can win on both sides of the line of scrimmage and the UNDER because teams that have beat the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games(Titans), playing in weeks 10 through 13, are 38-13 UNDER.
Betting Trend – Was 71% backing Tennessee, now 70% and 81% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Tennessee covers and Under
NFL – (467) DENVER at (468) L.A. CHARGERS 4:05 ET CBS *New*
The total in this AFC West affair is sliding, now down to 45.5 from 47. I’m going to hook my wagon to this because the Chargers defense has held past five foes to 13.2 PPG and they are 11-3 UNDER off one or more Under’s the last two seasons. It will be close as I have this matchup pegged for 44 points.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (469) OAKLAND at (470) ARIZONA 4:05 ET CBS
Three 13-year old – Criminal Minds – episodes might have more viewers than this contest. Thank goodness for point spreads and football bettors who will be interested and Arizona has gotten the call, lifted from -3.5 to -5.5 point favorites. As if the news could not get any worse for Oakland, they are 2-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Update – How bad is this game, even Arizona could not hold up as a larger favorite and are down a point to -4.5. This is a terrible nonconference clash, but the Redbirds are the lesser of two evils.
Betting Trend – Was 76% backing Arizona, now 68%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (15-15 ATS) in order: Steelers, Panthers and Chargers
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (17-12-1) in order: Eagles/Saints OVER, Cowboys/Falcons OVER and Titans/Colts OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 238-235-13 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 106-88-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 350-344-15 ATS