Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Nov. 1/2


A little bit of everything for line moves today, starting with the NBA, college football and the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (400-314-10 in 2018, 21-14 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.


I don’t know about you but I am still mentally adjusting to these totals this high. It seems the oddsmakers are trying to make sense of them as well as this NBA game the one will be talking about next have shifts of four or more points. This contest has risen from 227 to 231. Charlotte has alternated Under’s and Over’s in their last four games and it’s been a direct correlation to how they have shot the ball, either very well or very poorly. At some point the Hornets will have just an average shooting game and I’ll say it’s tonight against the Thunder and side with the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – (511) NEW ORLEANS at (512) PORTLAND  10:35 ET  TNT

Portland returns home off a road trip and thus far they have shown a proclivity to want to get up and down the floor. New Orleans began doing that in the second half of the season last year and they have established that as their style. The total in this West Conference clash has blown up from 224.5 to 230 and if you examine both teams home and road numbers, this should be an OVER.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Detroit

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CFB – Friday(315) PITTSBURGH at (316) VIRGINIA  7:30 ET  ESPN2

In this ACC clash, the total has fallen two points to 48.5. Not certain I agree for these reasons. The average total score of a Virginia game is 47 total points, which means we are basically right there. The average total score of a Pittsburgh contest is 60.6. The Panthers concede over 32 PPG, thus, it is within reason to surmise the Cavaliers would score more than their average of 28 points and if they reach at least 30 or more, we should have an OVER play. My numbers project a low 50’s outcome.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (453) KANSAS CITY at (454) CLEVELAND  1:00 ET  CBS

Here is an unusual sight, a game involving Kansas City with a sinking total. That’s right, this AFC affair has seen the total go from 53 to 51. What to expect from Cleveland is anyone’s guess, thus, we will stay in fact-based information. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and the Browns in their past three contents have allowed 32.3 PPG, making it a real possibility K.C. will score somewhere in that range. That leaves Cleveland to scoring close to 20 points, which is iffy since they are at 16.7 PPG in their last four outings.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (459) N.Y. JETS at (460) MIAMI  1:00 ET  CBS

There is a consensus among football bettors that in this AFC encounter, points will not be plentiful and the total has crumbled from 45.5 to 43.5. This is in spite of the Miami on a 3-0 OVER and New York at 4-1 OVER. However, the Jets Sam Darnold has seen almost every productive offensive playmaker get injured around him and Miami has Brock Osweiler. In the first meeting, the Dolphins won 20-12 and the total closed at 43.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – (463) CHICAGO at (464) BUFFALO  1:00 ET  FOX

Buffalo’s quarterback situation continues to deteriorate with Derek Anderson unlikely to play being in concussion protocol and having to move Nathan Peterman back into the starting role for the Bills. In order to have another QB, Buffalo signed journeyman and warm body Matt Barkley this week, which places the Bills in a real bind against a Chicago defense that is ranked 7th. Buffalo has gone from +8 to +10.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday

NFL – Monday(473) TENNESSEE at (474) DALLAS 8:15 ET  ESPN

For this Monday-nighter Dallas was sent out at -5 and later bet up to -6.5. Tennessee hits Big D on the three-game losing streak which plays into the thinking. Looking at the stats however, the separation seems less. The Titans are third in points allowed (18.1 PPG) and the Cowboys are second (17.6). Neither offense is productive, but maybe a case could be made for Dallas as they score 20 PPG compared to Tennessee at a mere 15.1 PPG.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Dallas

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Sunday


Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 222-222-12 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 94-84-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 324-324-14 ATS


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