Let’s get to all the action in line moves for a Hump Day. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (58-50-2 in 2019) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (527) MIAMI at (528) CHARLOTTE 7:05 ET FSSE, FSCR (side and total)
I wish I had a profound reason why Charlotte would go from -1.5 to -3.5 point home favorite over Miami, but I don’t. The Hornets have won both meetings this season but those games were in October and Charlotte has lost eight of 11, while the Heat have gotten warmer with a 3-1 SU and ATS surge. With Miami 20-10 ATS as underdogs and 20-11 ATS on the road, they are my choice. The total also makes no sense in falling four points to 215.5, as both teams are averaging over 230 total points in their last five contests. Maybe someone knows something I don’t but I’ll OVER on the total.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Charlotte and 60% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami covers and Over
NBA – (533) SAN ANTONIO at (534) ATLANTA 7:35 ET FSSW, FSS
You can tell the NBA has changed and the days of Gregg Popovich controlling situations are done. San Antonio for two decades was a model franchise who did everything right. Now the Spurs are just another team playing defenseless basketball and jacking up 3’s and rank 23rd in points allowed on the road. With the Spurs in Atlanta, the total is up three digits to 235.5 and they are 14-2 OVER away from home when the total is 220 or higher. These totals anymore are just plain crazy, but with the Hawks 15-6 OVER after two roadies, the higher score is possible.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
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CBB – (787) LSU at (788) FLORIDA 7:00 ET ESPN2
The total in this SEC clash has jumped from 137 to 141. What makes this a very challenging selection is Florida. In the Gators past four games they have scored – 82-64-71-56 points. The 82 came at Baton Rouge in OT against this very same LSU crew and that is Florida’s only Over in their last nine contests. After permitting 81.1 PPG over a seven-game stretch, the Tigers held their last two opponents to 62 PPG. This is not an easy choice and we lost value, still, LSU is 7-0 OVER revenging a straight up loss as a favorite, which is strong enough reason to support more points being scored.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (791) ST. BONAVENTURE at (720) DAVIDSON 7:00 ET Stadium
With St. Bonaventure’s having made a major move in winning six straight to move into a 3rd place tie in the A-10, the Bonnies have slipped from +7 to +5 at second place Davidson. An already excellent Bonnies defense has held their opponents to a suffocating 34% shooting in this period. However, Davidson connects on 47% at home and they drain nine 3’s a game and we’ll say that is the difference in the contest.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Davidson
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Davidson
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 29-22-1 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher –15-15-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 43-38-2 ATS