It is time for weekend line moves, this week covering baseball money lines, totals and series betting. In addition, we will cover line moves in the CFL for Saturday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (269-206-4 run, 79-49-2 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (951) N.Y. METS at (952) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET SNY, ATT-P
After winning 11 in a row, Pittsburgh has dropped two straight and will look to avoid a third consecutive setback. Enough bettors are not so certain the Pirates will, even being good-sized home favorites. The Bucs has slid from -170 to -150 against the Mets and are counting on Ivan Nova (6-6, 4.28 ERA) to turn the tide. Nova is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight starts since being reinstated from the DL and he is presumed to face a seemingly washed up Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60), who is coming off the DL himself. Despite the Pirates 11-16 record versus LH starter, I’ll side with them with New York 1-8 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pittsburgh
MLB – (953) PHILADELPHIA at (954) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET NBC-P, FSOH
The Phillies bats have been bashing the horsehide in their last five outings, tallying 35 runs, which makes it odd the total would come down from 9.5 to 9. Cincy’s Anthony DeSclafani (4-3, 5.40) is not going to remind anyone of a young Johnny Cueto and the Phils Nick Pivetta (6-8, 4.69) can be knocked around, especially in that Cincinnati bandbox ballpark. With the Reds 15-5 OVER this month and Pivetta 15-6 OVER if his club’s off a ‘W’, I like a larger score.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (963) MILWAUKEE at (964) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET FSWI, NBC-BA
When Madison Bumgarner (3-3, 3.19) pitched in the past, San Francisco had a very good chance of winning. Not anymore, as the Giants are no longer a World Series quality club. With Milwaukee having the decidedly better squad, they have tumbled 30 cents to just +115 underdogs. Chase Anderson (6-7, 3.81) has a 2.66 ERA on the road this season, but a lack of runs has kept Milwaukee at only 4-5 in his starts. Maybe I have soft spot for Mad Bum and should be thinking Brew Crew, but I’ll lean with the Giants again since they and Bumgarner are 8-2 vs. the Brewers.
Betting Trend – 73% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco
CFL – Saturday – (365) OTTAWA at (366) HAMILTON 4:00 ET ESPN2 (side and total)
Hamilton (2-3 SU & ATS) has lost their last two contests (both to Saskatchewan) and will try and get back in the win column against Ottawa (3-2, 2-3 ATS). The Tiger-Cats are evidently supposed to be on the prowl, lifted from -4.5 to -6 point home favorites. The Redblacks have failed to cover in both underdog roles this season, yet are 9-2 ATS on the road since last season and 6-0 ATS when catching fewer than seven digits away from home. With the total on the rise from 54 to 55.5, I’ll make it two contrarian plays. Because, when the total is 54 points or higher and the home team is off an upset loss and has a losing record (Hamilton), the UNDER is 23-5.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Ottawa, 62% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Ottawa covers, Play Under
MLB – CHIC. CUBS (-105) at ST. LOUIS (-115) (Series Betting)
No two ways about it, this should be a very tight series, just like last weekend in Chicago. The pitching matchups offer little in determining the outcome, but I’ll side with the Cubs because they have the better bullpen and they lead the majors with 34 come from behind wins, meaning they are never out of any game.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
MLB – OAKLAND (+120) at COLORADO (-140) (Series Betting)
This interleague clash is important with two teams fighting to continue their way up in the playoff picture and both are playing excellent baseball. Oakland’s on a 27-7 tear and Colorado is 16-5 in their last 21. Similar to the series above, not much too from the starting pitchers, though the A’s would have a slight edge. However, Oakland has a vastly superior bullpen and they have the third-best road record in baseball at 35-21, thus, I will back the Athletics.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 142-135-7 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 54-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 178-189-6 ATS