Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for February 6


Just like yesterday, we have a pair of line moves in the NBA and three in college basketball.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (24-17-1 in 2019) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (559) DENVER at (560) BROOKLYN  7:35 ET  ALT, YES

After playing excellent defense as far as shooting percentage for seven games in a row, playing a third game in four days caught up with Denver and they allowed Detroit to score 129 points and shoot 54.5% on Monday and were walloped by 26. After winning six straight, Brooklyn has dropped four of five and it’s offense has shot under 40% in three of their past five games. NBA bettors are counting on both teams to score and lifted the total from 221.5 to 225. I’m going the other way. The Nuggets have not scored more than 108 points in their last six away contests and the Nets have tallied almost seven fewer points in the past five games compared to their normal scoring average. On the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (569) HOUSTON at (570) SACRAMENTO  10:05 ET 

With the total climbing from 233.5 to 236, the only thing that is a lock is James Harden will score at least 30 points. Games in the range are difficult to wrap your mind around for betting purposes. In looking at both teams, Houston is 3-1 OVER when the total is 230 or higher and Sacramento is 12-9 OVER this season. After scuffling for a time, the Kings offense is starting to heat up again and both teams defense is mostly a function of the opponent missing shots, not doing anything to prevent made attempts. I’ll side the OVER and because of the lack of defense.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over


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CBB – (795) VCU at (796) GEOR. WASHINGTON  7:00 ET  ESPN+ (side and total)

VCU is in third place in the A-10 and is on the tournament bubble and needs to keep winning to make the field of 68. Most believe the Rams will beat George Washington, just by less than previously expected. VCU was sent out at -9 and washed up on shore this morning at -7. Additionally, the total jumped like people piling on the L.A. Rams, up six points to 135.5. Despite a 7-14 record and 3-5 ATS mark in the A-10, G.W. is 6-2 ATS in conference play and recently covered at Davidson and at George Mason, the two teams ahead of the Rams. I like the idea of the home dog here, but my numbers say VCU and I’ll side with them. The starting total was probably too low, but this is too high. VCU 71-60, play UNDER.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Under and 72% on VCU

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, Lean VCU

CBB – (825) OKLAHOMA STATE at (826) TCU   9:00 ET  ESPNU

With Oklahoma State 14-7 UNDER this season and TCU holding teams to 39.5% and 68 points at home, the total in this Big 12 tilt has tumbled from 141 to 137.5. Another key element is the Horned Frogs offense, which has vanished, averaging 60.8 PPG in their last five outings. While this appears really obvious, I think the original line was the correct one and TCU is 7-0 OVER after allowing 75 points or more two straight games. 

Betting Trend – 90% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 9-9-1 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 6-3ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 16-11-1 ATS


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